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 On closer inspection, however, most of the machines' control panels
bear the logos of Japan's FANUC Corp or the German conglomerate
Siemens.
The imported control systems in DMTG's products – used in the
assembly of everything from smartphones to cement trucks – are
symbolic of the technology gap between Chinese and foreign
industrial automation firms, just one of several challenges facing
China's ambition to nurture a national robotics industry.
Chinese robotics firms are also grappling with a weakening economy
and slumping automotive sector, and industry insiders already
predict a market bubble just three years after the central
government issued policies to spur robotics development.
"Last year everybody thought they could produce a robot," said Alan
Lee, director of Asia sales and business development at Boston-based
Rethink Robotics. "When you have market saturation you'll have
filtering and M&A. These guys will be the first layer to suffer."
It is a storyline familiar from other new industries such as solar
panels: Beijing's policies and subsides trigger a wave of
low-margin, low-cost contenders to rush into the market, where, with
no meaningful technology of their own, they struggle to compete on
price alone.
A year after analysts predicted the unstoppable advance of Chinese
robot makers, executives at foreign companies now say they are
well-positioned to weather any temporary blip in demand as
manufacturers tighten capital investment while waiting to see how
China's economy fares.
ROBOTICS EXPLOSION
To be sure, foreign or domestic executives alike say they believe in
China's commitment to upgrade its manufacturing sector and the
potential of the domestic robot industry to grow into a leading
force in the long run.
With wages rising as much as 10 percent a year, Chinese policymakers
have said they fear labor shortages of as high as 30 percent in some
areas and are keen to help automation along.
Chinese-made robots deployed have surged from an estimated 3,000 in
2012, when the central government began introducing automated
manufacturing proposals, to 15,000 last year, according to the
International Federation of Robotics.
The growth rate for foreign-made robots has been slower, but they
still dominate Chinese factory floors, with numbers increasing from
22,000 to 41,000, during the same period.
Subsidies have sparked an explosion in the number of Chinese
robotics firms from 200 to around 815 in two years, according to
OFWeek, a Chinese robot industry news site and research center.
But at most 30 of those firms have done any meaningful research and
development, said Wang Baomin, senior analyst at Shenzhen-based
consulting firm MIR Industry.
"Companies that get subsidies through connections are cruising
without feeling any competition or fully grasping the technology,"
said Wang.
"I'm afraid robots will walk down the path of China's solar
industry, with its market development distorted."
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Xu Wenjiu, an executive at Shenzhen-based robot maker LEN, expects a
third of domestic robot firms to collapse within three years because
many do not have the ability to offer after-market maintenance for
products that break down.
TECHNOLOGY GAP
Foreign robot makers are sanguine about the profusion of Chinese
rivals - at least for now.
Gu Chunyuan, the China head of Zurich-based ABB Robotics, a leading
robotics firm along with the likes of Germany's Kuka and Japan's
Yaskawa, downplayed the threat of Chinese competition, saying his
firm held a significant technological advantage.
The company also ships many "naked" robots to Chinese firms who
resell a customized final product to factories.
In Dalian, DTMG's president, Ma Junqing, acknowledged there was an
"obvious gap" between Chinese firms and foreign competitors in robot
and automation technology.
But he said his firm, which specializes in automated machine tools,
had been making advanced robot arms for only three years and hoped
to catch up with Japanese rivals in three years and German
competitors within five.
"The complete product chain takes a long time, as does researching
technology and developing the market," said Ma, whose firm has
longstanding government links and receives subsidies and loans.
Still, domestic firms like Shanghai Siasun Robot & Automation are
seen as making advances in robot technology, while companies like
DMTG and rival Shenyang Machine Tool Co are investing to expand
beyond traditional machine tools into more sophisticated products.
Rethink Robotics' founder Rodney Brooks, who has consulted for local
Chinese governments, predicted that the champion of Chinese robotics
may emerge from an unexpected quarter, given the level of investment
and technology required.
He named e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, which has
invested in robotics with hardware manufacturer Foxconn and
Softbank, as a contender, much like how Amazon Inc has become a
major robotics player in the United States.
"It may not be the traditional players but the transformation is
still going to happen in China," Brooks said.
(Reporting by Gerry Shih and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Alex
Richardson)
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