|
 Russia's deployment is prompting a reassessment of the conflict
among insurgents whose advances in western Syria in recent months
may have been the catalyst for Russia's decision. U.S. officials say
Russian forces are already arriving.
Rebels interviewed by Reuters say they have already encountered
stronger government resistance in those areas - notably the coastal
heartland of Assad's Alawite sect - and now predict an even tougher
war with Russian involvement.
Some see an opportunity in the Russian deployment, predicting more
military aid from states such as Saudi Arabia. That signals one of
the risks of Russian involvement: a spiral of deepening foreign
interference in a conflict already complicated by a regional
struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Hoping to galvanize more support, rebels are evoking the Soviet
failure in Afghanistan as a model for their struggle, and depicting
Russia as a new occupier. But they also say this means the war,
already in its fifth year, will go on even longer.
"It is in our calculations that the battle will now extend for more
years than it would have without the Russians," said Abu Yousef
al-Mouhajer, a rebel fighting in the Latakia area where Russian
forces have deployed at an airfield.
"The Russian intervention has come to save the regime," said the
fighter with the Ahrar al-Sham group, part of an alliance that has
advanced in the Assad-held west. Like other rebels interviewed for
this article, he spoke via the internet.
U.S. officials say Russia is undertaking a significant military
buildup at the airfield, including fighter jets, helicopter
gunships, artillery and as many as 500 naval infantry.
While Russia has not been specific about its goals - saying its
support for Damascus aims to fight terrorism - rebels in the west
believe their area of operations is the priority because it poses
the biggest immediate risk to Assad.
Russia operates its only naval facility on the Mediterranean in the
Syrian city of Tartous near Latakia.
Islamic State, while a growing danger, is seen as a lesser threat to
Assad for now, though it also seems likely to be hit.
The insurgents fighting near the coast include the Nusra Front, al
Qaeda's Syrian wing, 30 percent of whose fighters are foreign
jihadists inspired by the aim of battling the Alawite-led
government. They include Russians, Asians and Chechens, the Nusra
Front leader said in an interview earlier this year.
Moscow has said its military support for Damascus is aimed at
fighting terrorism, safeguarding Syria's statehood and preventing a
"total catastrophe" in the region.
It has sent greater quantities and new types of weapons to a Syrian
army which has been suffering a manpower problem.
The support adds to the foreign backing Assad has already received
from Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, which has been fighting alongside
the army for several years. Iran has mobilized Iraqi and Afghani
militias to support the government.
 "MORE FEROCIOUS"
The rebels, better armed and organized, have challenged Assad like
never before in both the northwest and southwest this year, with
support from governments including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
They all want Assad gone from power.
Recent gains have brought the rebels into the Ghab Plain, just east
of the Alawite mountains that overlook the coast.
Rebels there report tougher resistance from government troops even
before the news of the Russian deployment.
"Today we have a new type of soldier that is fighting us with more
ferociousness and professionalism," said al-Mouhajer.
[to top of second column] |
"The battle has changed: it's now in their Alawite home."
Another rebel said: "The more progress we make towards the coast,
the more ferocious they are in battle."
Some fighters say there is no sign of increased Russian support yet.
Others report more accurate air strikes and the appearance of new
types of armored vehicles.
A Syrian military source told Reuters last week the army has started
using new types of weapons supplied by Russia.
"The information we have is that Russia has taken on the task of
protecting the coast and it is leading the battles we are now
fighting near Joreen," said a Nusra Front commander who was using
his nom de guerre, Abu Anas al-Lathkani.
Joreen is a government-held town overlooking the Ghab Plain, and
home to an army base. "The Russian presence will change the nature
of the battle. The pace of our advances will become slightly more
difficult," al-Lathkani said.
"ANOTHER AFGHANISTAN"
Damascus, an ally of Moscow since Soviet times, says it will request
Russian troops to fight alongside its own if the need arises. It has
denied the presence of Russian combat troops on the ground now. But
Lebanese sources familiar with the political and military situation
have said Russians have already taken part in military operations.
There are already signs of a rebel response.
Jaish al-Islam, one of the bigger rebel groups, has posted a video
said to show a missile attack on the Latakia airfield being used by
the Russians. Jaish al-Islam, widely believed to be Saudi-backed,
has also launched new attacks near Damascus. Other rebels have
escalated attacks in Idlib province and in Aleppo.
Another rebel said the Russians risked "another Afghanistan where
they would be sending troops who would return in coffins".
U.S. and Saudi support was crucial to the success of Afghani
insurgents - the Mujahideen - against the Soviets in the 1980s.
But the United States, while supplying limited military support to
some rebels, has shied away from larger backing for reasons
including fears that weapons will go to extremists. Notably,
requests for anti-aircraft missiles have been denied.
Notwithstanding U.S. caution, some rebels believe backers such as
Saudi Arabia will be forced to increase their support.
"A serious Russian intervention in Syria - beyond the reports we are
hearing - will represent a continuation of the struggle," said Abu
Ghiath al-Shami, spokesman for Alwiyat Seif al-Sham, a "Free Syrian
Army" rebel group in southern Syria.
"Russia has no aim for a political solution. It only wants the
preservation of the Syrian regime. As for the states that support
us, ... I think there will be a change in their attitude towards us,
via support, or perhaps a political shift."
(Writing by Tom Perry; editing by Janet McBride)
[© 2015 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2015 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
