China,
Iran to put brakes on oil price recovery: poll
Send a link to a friend
[September 30, 2015]
By Arpan Varghese
(Reuters) - Global oversupply and more
Iranian production are likely to keep a lid on oil prices next year,
offsetting any slowdown in U.S. shale output, a Reuters poll showed on
Wednesday.
|
Benchmark North Sea Brent crude is expected to average $58.60 a
barrel in 2016, slightly above the $56.63 seen so far this year, but
well below the forecast of $62.30 in last month's poll, the Reuters
survey of 31 analysts showed.
Fifteen of the 28 analysts polled in both the August and September
surveys cut their 2016 forecasts, while 10 kept them unchanged. The
poll forecast Brent would average $55.30 in 2015.
U.S. crude is projected to average $54.10 a barrel next year, down
from a forecast of $57 in the August poll.
Oil prices have collapsed over the last year, falling from a high
above $115 a barrel in June 2014 to a low of almost $42 in August
this year.
Underlying the drop in prices is a huge oversupply as Middle East
oil exporters have fought for market share with U.S. shale
producers, increasing stockpiles worldwide.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2015/Sep/30/images/ads/current/goodman_sda_Book_021914.png)
Most analysts expect oil prices to stay low for some time to come
until the market rebalances and stocks begin to fall.
"Prices may have bottomed in the trading range experienced over the
past four weeks," Energy Aspects analyst Rhidoy Rashid told Reuters
Global Oil Forum, but added that a rapid recovery in the market was
unlikely.
"Prices must hold at this range for around the coming six months in
order for rebalancing to occur properly."
Any increase in oil supply from Iran, if economic sanctions are
lifted on Tehran, would put extra pressure on prices.
[to top of second column] |
![](../images/ads/current/demay_inv-lda081412.png)
"Iranian production is likely to pick up pace next year once the
country has been certified to have complied with the terms and
conditions in the nuclear agreement by the International Atomic
Energy Agency," Vyanne Lai of National Australia Bank said.
"A slowing Chinese economy might (also) affect investor confidence
and drag oil prices lower."
Official figures show U.S. oil production has begun to decline in
response to lower oil prices, but the poll suggested that this would
do little to support the market short term.
"There is unlikely to be any 'end' to the shale boom," Santander
analyst Kenny Jason said. "Shale will be an important part of the
U.S. and global oil supply for decades to come."Bernstein had the
highest 2016 forecasts for Brent at $86 a barrel, while Natixis had
the lowest at $48.50.
(Reporting by Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; editing by Susan Thomas)
[© 2015 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2015 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2015/Sep/30/images/ads/current/chicago_street_rental_sda_daily_2015.png) |