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 Threatened by rebel advances last year, Assad is now pumped up
with confidence after Russian air strikes reversed the tide and
enabled his army to recover lost ground from Sunni insurgents as
well as the jihadis of Islamic State.
While Syria experts doubt he can recapture the whole country without
an unlikely full-scale ground intervention by Russia and Iran, they
also doubt President Vladimir Putin will force him out - unless
there is a clear path to stability, which could take years.
Instead, Russia’s dramatic military intervention last September --
after five years of inconclusive fighting between Assad and
fragmented rebel groups mostly from Syria’s Sunni majority -- has
tilted the balance of power in his favour and given him the upper
hand at the talks in Geneva.
The main target of the Russian air force bombardment was mainstream
and Islamist forces that launched an offensive last summer. Only
recently have Russia and Syrian forces taken the fight to Islamic
State, notably by recapturing Palmyra, the Graeco-Roman city the
jihadis overran last year.
The Russian campaign, backed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and
Shi’ite militia such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, has for now outmatched
the rebels, including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and units
supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States.
 REBELS LOSE MOMENTUM
Dealing with those groups rather than Islamic State seemed the main
aim of Moscow's intervention, analysts say.
"The Russian intervention fundamentally reshaped the Syrian
conflict," says Kheder Khaddour from the Carnegie Middle East
Center. "The momentum of the rebels does not exist any more."
Putin, diplomats say, weakened the opposition to coax it into
accepting a settlement on Russian and Syrian terms. That does not
mean the "transitional authority" sought by the U.S. and its allies,
but a government expanded to include elements of the opposition,
with Assad at its head for the immediate future.
Russia still wants Assad to lead the transition to the elections,
while the opposition and its regional allies, including the United
States and Europe, insist he should step down. So far no compromises
are in sight.
"We need things to advance in the coming weeks. If the political
process is just about putting a few opposition people in nominal
cabinet posts then this isn't going to go very far," said a European
diplomat close to the talks..
"If there isn't a political transition the civil war will continue
and Islamic State will benefit from it," he said.
Fawaz Gerges, author of ISIS: A History, said: "At this point the
Russians have the upper hand in dictating a solution. The Americans
are playing on Russia’s playing field."
UNCERTAINTY
His judgment is underlined by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign
minister, who boasted in a recent interview that "the Americans
understand they can do nothing without Russia. They can no longer
solve serious problems on their own".
Yet uncertainty surrounds Moscow’s intentions, after Putin suddenly
withdrew part of his forces from Syria last month. That led to
speculation among Assad's enemies that Russia was contemplating
whether to ditch Assad – an outcome many Syria watchers find highly
improbable.
 "The key issue remains when and if the Russians will act to
facilitate this transition. It's unclear, and we get the feeling
that the recent talks didn't change much in the Russian position,"
the European diplomat said.
"I don't think the upcoming round will reach any real decisions on
the political process, he added.
Gerges says the partial pull-back sent a message to the Americans
that Russia is a rational and credible force that is interested in a
diplomatic settlement.
It was also intended as a jolt to Assad, by then so emboldened at
the way Russia and Iran had transformed his weak position that he
was announcing plans to recapture all of Syria.
"The message to the Assad regime was that Russia doesn’t play by
Assad’s playbook, it doesn’t want to get down in Syria’s quagmire
(but) wants to cut its losses," Gerges believes.
But it is far from clear that Assad interprets these messages the
same way.
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Last month, he dismissed any notion of a transition from the current
structure, as agreed by international powers, calling instead for
"national unity" solution with some elements of the opposition
joining the present government.
"The transition period must be under the current constitution, and
we will move on to the new constitution after the Syrian people vote
for it," Assad told Russia's Sputnik news agency.
ASSAD "WILL NOT GO QUIETLY"
Faisal al-Yafai, a leading commentator from the United Arab
Emirates, says Russia "played its cards in Syria very cleverly, but
miscalculated in one aspect".
"They assumed that once the (Assad) regime felt secure, it would be
more willing to negotiate. In fact, the opposite has happened”.
"There’s a limit to the pressure that Russia can exert on Assad.
Assad absolutely will not go quietly -- and certainly not when there
is no real alternative to him, even within the regime," says
al-Yafai.
Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria and now a senior
fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, agrees that
Russia may not be able to compel Assad to go.
The secret police backbone of Assad’s rule remains intact, he says,
and "Assad seems confident again, after his much more sober tone
last summer. The Russians may have helped him too much, such that
Assad can maintain control of key cities and roads for a long time".
Ford also drew attention to the competition over Syria between
Russia and Iran, Assad’s two main allies. Moscow’s emphasis is on
its traditional relations with the Syrian military establishment,
while Tehran focusses on the militia network it built with Hezbollah
to shore up the regime.
“Assad is plenty smart to know how to play one country off against
the other. I am not even sure Russia would test its heavy pressure
capacity against that of Iran in Damascus. The Russians know they
might lose", Ford said.
Russia’s involvement in Syria has given it greater insight into the
structure of the Assad rule, constructed to intermesh the Assad
family and allies from its minority Alawite community with the
security services and military command.
ASSAD BUOYANT
Khaddour from Carnegie says Russia now realises the circumstances
for a transition do not yet exist, because removing Assad might
unravel the whole power structure.
"There is a problem within the regime. It is not capable of
producing an alternative to itself internally," says Khaddour,
adding the only concession it has made – simply to turn up in Geneva
– was the result of Russian pressure.
With limits to Russian and Iranian influence on a newly buoyant
Assad, few believe the Geneva talks will bring peace.
"If the Russians felt it was time for a solution they would have
reached an understanding with the Americans to give up on Assad
without giving up on the Alawites. The circumstances are not ripe
yet for a solution," says Sarkis Naoum, a leading commentator on
Syria.
The diplomat added: "The fundamental question is still whether the
Russians are serious and want this to happen."
"Nobody knows what's in their mind and I'm not sure they even know."
(Additional reporting by John Irish; Editing by Giles Elgood)
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