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 Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were down 27 cents at
$41.67 a barrel at 0810 GMT, retreating from a three-week high
reached on Friday. Oil prices rallied more than 6 percent last week
after data showed U.S. energy firms had cut oil rigs for a third
straight week to the lowest since November 2009.
U.S. WTI crude also eased on Monday, falling to $39.51 a barrel,
down 21 cents from the prior session.
"Prices will move back and forth this week on expectations for Doha.
This morning it seems that speculation is being scaled back again,"
said Commerzbank senior oil analyst Carsten Fritsch.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, who expect oil prices to average $35 a
barrel in the second quarter, cautioned the outcome of the meeting
may end up being bearish for the market.
"A production freeze at recent production levels would not
accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (excluding
Iran) and Russian production levels have this year remained close to
our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 million bpd," the analysts
said.
Peers at Barclays also warned the meeting could have limited impact
because some producers who have the potential to raise output are
unlikely to get involved in an output freeze.
Bearish sentiment was also further reflected in price expectations.
BMO Capital Markets lowered its 2016 Brent and WTI price forecasts
to $41 and $38 a barrel respectively, down from the $45 and $41.50
previously estimated.
However, the longer-term outlook for oil seemed less bearish, with
analysts forecasting a pick-up in demand.
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Researchers at Bernstein expect global oil demand to grow at a mean
annual rate of 1.4 percent between 2016 and 2020, compared with
annual growth of 1.1 percent over the past decade.
"We expect oil markets to rebalance by the end of 2016. This will
allow oil prices to recover towards the marginal cost of $60 per
barrel," Bernstein said, adding that global demand would reach 101.1
million bpd by 2020 from 94.6 million bpd now.
(This story has been refiled to remove extraneous word 'on' in
paragraph 2)
(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by
Greg Mahlich)
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