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 He’s Paul Nehlen, who has emerged as a Republican rival to Paul
Ryan, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, in his home
district in Wisconsin. Ryan, the most powerful elected Republican in
the country, is the epitome of that establishment.
While many Republican operatives fear Trump’s tumultuous
presidential bid will hurt House and Senate races this year, a
handful of candidates like Nehlen are embracing Trump’s message,
although not always the man himself.
A loss by Ryan or another high-profile incumbent would send
shockwaves through the party and could prompt fellow establishment
Republicans to rethink positions on advocacy of free trade and
support for immigration reform.
In New Hampshire, where Trump won the nominating contest, or
primary, by 20 points, Jim Rubens, a former Republican state senator
who has endorsed the billionaire businessman, is attempting to
unseat incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte.
 In Arizona, another state Trump won, state senator Kelli Ward is
challenging veteran Senator John McCain by talking up securing the
border and courting voters at Trump rallies, although she has not
endorsed the presidential candidate.
The dynamic of outsiders challenging establishment candidates is one
that has been taking place within the Republican Party for several
election cycles, but in Trump, the insurgency has a new, more
popular face.
Beyond the races in Wisconsin, Arizona and New Hampshire, it has
played out in states like Alabama, where Jonathan McConnell greeted
voters outside a Trump rally in Huntsville in a bid to unseat
veteran Senator Richard Shelby, and North Carolina, where Rep. Renee
Elmers, facing a challenge to her seat, said she had voted for Trump
in that state’s presidential primary.
But, unlike the anti-establishment wave that swept Tea Party-aligned
lawmakers into Congress in 2010, these candidates do not appear to
represent a new anti-Washington groundswell, suggesting there are
limits to Trump’s brand of politics, which at times runs deep
against Republican orthodoxy on issues such as trade and taxes.
“I been surprised that there haven’t been any Senate or House
incumbents that have lost primaries as a result of a groundswell of
support for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz,” said Nathan Gonzales, an
independent analyst on congressional races in Washington.
Shelby, for example, soundly defeated challenger McConnell in
Alabama's Republican primary race in March.
“Other candidates could try to replicate his message, but no one can
replicate Donald Trump,” Gonzales said.
Still, many analysts and political operatives believe Republicans
unhappy with Trump as the nominee won't vote in the general
election, potentially causing Republicans to lose their
congressional seats to Democratic contenders.
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It would be easy, to dismiss Nehlen’s challenge to Ryan, who is
popular among Republicans inside and outside of Wisconsin and has a
large campaign warchest. A poll last month by Marquette University
Law School showed him with more than an 80 percent approval rating
among Wisconsin Republicans.
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But less than two years ago, Eric Cantor, then the No. 2 Republican
in the House of Representatives, was also considered a rising
Republican star. He suffered a shock defeat in the 2014
congressional elections in Virginia to an obscure conservative
college professor, David Brat. Cantor, too, had looked unbeatable.
“That race is what reinforced in my mind this is possible,” Nehlen
said in an interview.
Trump has frequently criticized Ryan for the $1.1 billion budget
deal struck with Democratic President Barack Obama last December.
And Ryan’s support of trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific
Partnership and comprehensive immigration reform is squarely at odds
with Trump’s positions.
Nehlen said those two issues motivated him to mount his challenge to
Ryan, although he stopped short of saying he embraced Trump's
candidacy.
Rubens, who is challenging Ayotte in New Hampshire, isn’t as
restrained. ”I admire his independence,” Rubens told Reuters.
Rubens, like Trump, calls for a fence along the southern border and
for doing away with so-called “birthright citizenship,” a policy
that grants anyone born on U.S. soil a citizen.
Ayotte, a first-term senator, was praised by conservatives when she
ran in 2010 and was endorsed by former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
at the height of Palin’s popularity. But she earned their wrath when
she backed immigration reform. She also frustrated moderates by
voting against a bill that would block suspected terrorists from
buying guns.
Ayotte, Gonzales said, "is an example of someone who can’t come out
guns blazing against Donald Trump. She needs every Republican
possible in the state.”
In Arizona, Ward is challenging McCain, the moderate who was the
Republican presidential nominee in 2008, in a state where rancor
over immigration issues runs high. Ward has said she supports
Trump's claim that Mexico was sending criminals to the United
States. Mexico has ridiculed the allegation.
Ward has an opportunity. A poll released last month by the firm
Public Policy Polling showed McCain with a 33 percent approval
rating among Republicans in Arizona.
(Additional reporting by Susan Cornwell and David Morgan, editing by
Caren Bohan and Ross Colvin)
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