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 Gross domestic product probably rose at a 0.7 percent annual rate
after a 1.4 percent pace in the fourth quarter, according to a
Reuters survey, also as businesses stepped up efforts to reduce
unwanted merchandise clogging up their warehouses.
Growth was also likely dented by cheap oil, which has hurt the
profits of oil field companies like Schlumberger <SLB.N> and
Halliburton <HAL.N> and contributed to weak business spending. The
Commerce Department will publish its advance first-quarter GDP
growth estimate on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.(1230 GMT).
"I don't think it means the economy is in trouble," said Paul
Ashworth chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
"Employment growth was incredibly strong in the quarter and
forward-looking surveys have rebounded over the last months,
suggesting the second quarter will be much stronger," said Paul
Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
The Federal Reserve, following a policy meeting that ended on
Wednesday, acknowledged economic activity had "slowed," but also
said labor market conditions had "improved further."
The U.S. central bank appeared to view the threats from the global
economy and financial markets as having diminished. The Fed left its
benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged and suggested it was in
no hurry to tighten monetary policy further. It hiked rates in
December for the first time in nearly a decade.
First-quarter GDP growth could, however, surprise on the upside
after a report on Wednesday showed the goods trade deficit plunging
to a one-year low in March as both exports and imports declined, a
sign of weak domestic and global demand.
Economists also say the model used by the government to strip out
seasonal patterns from data is not fully accomplishing its goal
despite recent steps to address the problem.
Residual seasonality has plagued first-quarter GDP, with growth
underperforming in five of the last six years since the recovery
started in June 2009.
ECONOMY RESILIENT
"It will be tough to swallow such a low first-quarter GDP print, but
thankfully we should be quickly reminded of the strength and
resiliency of the U.S. economy when the April nonfarm payroll report
is released next Friday," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at
Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Another month of strong job gains is expected in April, with
applications for unemployment benefits near a 43-year low. Job
growth averaged 209,000 jobs per month in the first quarter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S.
economic activity, is expected to have significantly decelerated
from the fourth quarter's 2.4 percent rate.
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Households have been frugal, cutting back on purchases of
automobiles, despite cheap gasoline. Households appear to have
socked away modest wage gains from the tightening labor market and
the gasoline savings. They have also reduced their debt.
Higher savings and a lower debt load augur well for an acceleration
in consumer spending.
Tepid consumer spending likely gave businesses more reason to place
fewer orders for goods and ramp up efforts to reduce an inventory
bloat. In the first quarter, businesses are forecast to have
accumulated between $48 billion and $56 billion worth of inventory,
down from $78.3 billion in the fourth quarter.
Economists estimate the small inventory build will cut about
seven-tenths of a percentage point from first quarter GDP growth, up
from the 0.22 percentage point drag in the fourth quarter.
Trade is expected to have subtracted four-tenths of a percentage
point from GDP growth, with dollar strength weighing on exports. The
dollar gained 20 percent versus the currencies of the United States'
trading partners between June 2014 and December 2015.
So far this year the dollar is down 2.6 percent on a trade weighted
basis, raising optimism for a rebound in exports.
A sustained plunge in energy sector investment probably put more
pressure on business spending. Investment in software, equipment and
nonresidential structures is expected have declined further in the
first quarter.
Strong gains in residential investment are expected. Housing has
been the bright spot in the economy.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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