Syria truce backed by Russia, Turkey, holds but clashes reported

[December 30, 2016]  By John Davison

BEIRUT (Reuters) - A Russian- and Turkish-backed ceasefire that aims to end nearly six years of war in Syria and lead to peace talks appeared to hold on Friday but was tarnished by clashes since it took effect at midnight.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, announced the ceasefire on Thursday after forging the agreement with Turkey, a longtime backer of the opposition.

Monitors and a rebel official reported clashes almost immediately after midnight (2200 GMT Thursday) between insurgents and government forces along the provincial boundary between Idlib and Hama, and isolated incidents of gunfire further south.

Less than 12 hours later, Syrian government forces and their allies clashed with rebels in a strategic valley northwest of Damascus, and helicopter gunships carried out air raids in the area, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. Government warplanes then carried out air strikes in northern Hama, the monitor said.

Calm still prevailed in many areas included in the deal, the Observatory and rebel officials said, but the fighting highlighted the fragility of any truce agreement in a country where repeated international efforts towards peace have failed.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the United States could join a fresh peace process once President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. He also wanted Egypt to join, together with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan and the United Nations.

A number of rebel groups have signed the agreement, Russia's Defence Ministry said. Several rebel officials acknowledged the deal, and a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a loose alliance of insurgent groups, said it would abide by the truce.

One FSA commander was optimistic about the truce deal, the third serious attempt at a nationwide ceasefire this year.

"This time I have confidence in its seriousness. There is new international input," Colonel Fares al-Bayoush said without elaborating.

Syria's civil war, which began when a peaceful uprising descended into violence in 2011, has resulted in more than 300,000 deaths and displaced more than 11 million people, half its pre-war population.

The ceasefire, in the waning days of U.S. President Barack Obama's administration, was the first major international diplomatic initiative in the Middle East in decades not to involve the United States.

PREVIOUS COLLAPSES

The previous two Syria ceasefires, brokered by Cold War foes Washington and Moscow, took effect in February and September but both collapsed within weeks as warring sides accused each other of truce violations and fighting intensified.

Putin said the parties were also prepared to start peace talks intended to take place in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. Syrian state media said late on Thursday those talks would take place "soon".

The Syrian government will be negotiating from a strong position after its army and their allies, including Shi'ite militias supported by Iran, along with Russian air power, routed rebels in their last major urban stronghold of Aleppo this month.

Moscow's air campaign since September last year has turned the civil war in Assad's favour, and the last rebels left Aleppo for areas that are still under rebel control to the west of the city, including the province of Idlib.

The ceasefire will have to hold before talks can take place.

In a sign that the latest truce could be as challenging to maintain as its predecessors, there was confusion over which rebel groups would be covered by the ceasefire.

The Syrian army said the agreement did not include the radical Islamist group Islamic State, fighters affiliated to al Qaeda's former branch the Nusra Front, or any factions linked to those jihadist groups.

But several rebel officials said the agreement did include the former Nusra Front - now known as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham - which announced in July that it was severing ties with al Qaeda.

A still image from video taken December 15, 2016 over eastern Aleppo shows an operation to evacuate thousands of civilians and fighters in buses from Aleppo, Syria Syrian Army/Handout via Reuters TV

The powerful Islamist insurgent group Ahrar al-Sham said it had not signed the ceasefire agreement because of "reservations", which it would make clear in due course.

RUSSIA-TURKEY DETENTE

The deal also follows a thaw in ties between Russia and Turkey.

Talks on the latest truce picked up momentum after Russia, Iran and Turkey said last week they were ready to back a peace deal and adopted a declaration setting out principles for an agreement.

In a sign of the detente, the Turkish armed forces said on Friday Russian aircraft had carried out three air strikes against Islamic State in the area of al-Bab in northern Syria, killing 12 of the jihadists.

Ankara is backing rebels fighting against Islamic State, which has made enemies of all other sides involved in the conflict.

Putin said opposition groups and the Syrian government had signed a number of documents, including the ceasefire, measures to monitor the truce, and a statement on readiness to start peace talks.

While Ankara has been a big sponsor of the rebellion, Assad's removal has become a secondary concern to fighting the expansion of Kurdish influence in northern Syria. The chances of Assad's opponents forcing him from power now seem more remote than at any point in the war.

Turkish demands that fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah movement leave Syria may not please Iran, another major Assad supporter. Hezbollah has been fighting alongside Syrian government forces against rebels.

On Thursday a senior Hezbollah official said the party's military wing would remain in Syria.

Hezbollah's mission in Syria was to "confront the terrorist project", Lebanon's National News Agency quoted the head of Hezbollah's political council, Sayyed Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed, as saying.

UNITED STATES SIDELINED

The United States has been sidelined in recent negotiations and is not due to attend the next round of peace talks in Kazakhstan, a key Russian ally.

Its exclusion reflects growing frustration from both Turkey and Russia over Washington's policy on Syria, officials have said.

James Dobbins, a former senior U.S. diplomat, said the lack of American involvement in the talks between Russia, Iran and Turkey did not preclude the United States from being a major player in the region.

In this case, it was frozen out because Obama leaves office in less than a month and because Turkey and Russia are at odds with the United States over its Syria policy and other issues, said Dobbins, a fellow at RAND, a research organization.

Trump has said he would cooperate more closely with Russia to fight terrorism but it was unclear what that policy would look like, given resistance from the Pentagon and the U.S. intelligence community to closer cooperation with Russia on Syria.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington in Beirut, Jonathan Landay in Washington; Editing by Paul Tait and Anna Willard)

[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.]

Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.