The string of assurances comes ahead of two high-profile political
events for China: a meeting of G20 finance chiefs in Shanghai later
this month and next month's annual gathering of China's legislature
- where the next five-year economic development plan will be
finalised.
A rout in Chinese stocks last summer and its unexpected devaluation
of the yuan <CNY=CFXS> in August have rattled global markets,
raising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest
economy and Beijing's ability to steer it simultaneously through
both a protracted slowdown and radical restructuring.
"China's economic fundamentals have not changed," Zhao Chenxin, a
spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC),
the country's top economic planner, told reporters in Beijing on
Wednesday. "The economy will maintain a medium- to high-rate
growth."
"China's status as the world's largest holder of foreign exchange
reserves has not changed, the large-scale trade surplus has not
changed and the steady progress in the yuan internationalization has
not changed," Zhao said.
Still, gross domestic product expanded 6.9 percent in 2015, the
slowest in a quarter of a century, and economists see a further
cooling this year even if the government expands its year-long
stimulus campaign.
"We think growth could be 6.7-6.8 percent this year," said Xu Gao,
chief economist of China Everbright Securities in Beijing.
"The risk of a hard landing is not big. The risk of a hard landing
may come from improper government policies. If policies are right,
the risk of a hard landing is very small."
The NDRC plans to allocate 400 billion yuan ($61.3 billion) to fund
local governments' infrastructure projects, a local branch of the
economic planner said in a statement before the long Lunar New Year
break.
The economic planner said on Wednesday that it had okayed 54.1
billion yuan of investments in January - following approval of 2.52
trillion yuan worth of projects in 2015 - to help support growth.
The announcement followed measures announced by the central bank on
Tuesday to support China's industries.
Data also showed banks doled out a record 2.51 trillion yuan of new
loans in January, far more than markets had expected and suggesting
Beijing is keeping monetary policy loose.
Separately, a spokesman for the commerce ministry on Wednesday
downplayed the risk of capital flight, and said there is no basis
for continued depreciation of the yuan, a scenario that has been one
factor behind a massive sell-off in global markets early this year.
Still, global markets and China's major trading partners remain
nervous about its foreign exchange policy.
The central bank has stunned investors twice in six months - in
August and early this year - by allowing sudden, sharp drops in the
value of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, only to intervene quickly
and forcefully afterwards to steady it.
It burned through a record amount of foreign reserves in 2015 as it
sold dollars and bought yuan to support the currency and deter
speculators betting on further declines.
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The yuan is expected to be among the key topics of discussion at the
meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the
Group of 20 economies in Shanghai at the end of this month.
While Beijing's latest assurances of stability may have tempered
fears of an imminent and sharp devaluation, most economists and
currency strategists expect the yuan will remain under pressure and
capital outflows will continue until the economy shows some signs of
leveling out.
STABLE JOBS?
"After the Lunar New Year, the cabinet and government ministries
have all sent out positive signals," said Xu at China Everbright
Securities.
"For the economy, there is still lots of room for the government to
step up investment. 2016 is the first year of the 13th five-year
plan (2016-2020) and the government will ensure growth of at least
6.5 percent this year."
NDRC's Zhao also said China has the ability and confidence to
maintain stable employment levels, even as the government moves to
curb overcapacity in the coal and steel sectors to squeeze out
so-called "zombie firms".
The government will take steps to resolve factory overcapacity but
will try to reduce the number of layoffs, he said.
China's plan to cut its steel production capacity by 100-150 million
tonnes will lead to the loss of up to 400,000 jobs, the official
Xinhua news agency reported last month.
And while most private economists agree the economy does not appear
to be in danger of sharp deterioration at present, most are sticking
to forecasts of a gradual and bumpy slowdown.
"We expect the economy to continue to slow and corporate balance
sheets to worsen," Tao Wang, Hong Kong-based China economist at UBS,
wrote in a report on Monday.
"However, we see the risk of an immediate systematic financial
crisis as very small, due to high domestic saving and ample banking
liquidity, extensive government ownership of banks and many debtors,
and capital controls."
(The story is refiled to fix word in first paragraph)
(Reporting by Kevin Yao and Ryan Woo in BEIJING; Editing by Kim
Coghill)
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