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 Allies of pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, buoyed by Iran's
nuclear deal, hope to gain influence, but moves by hardliners to
block moderate candidates and disillusion over Rouhani's stalled
reforms leave them with an uphill task.
Last year's nuclear accord led to the lifting of crippling
international sanctions, offering the hope of economic upturn and
better living standards for many Iranians.
But the potential opening up to the world - and Rouhani's increasing
popularity - have alarmed hardline allies of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and have intensified the political infighting
within Iran's complex power structures.
The hardline Guardian Council, which vets candidates and laws,
blocked thousands of mostly moderate hopefuls from standing in the
Feb. 26 parliamentary election.
It also barred nearly 80 percent of candidates standing in an
election held on the same day for the Assembly of Experts, which
will eventually choose the 76-year-old Khamenei's successor.
The council vets parliamentary candidates based on their loyalty to
Iran's constitution and clerical leadership.
 "In total 6,229 people, out of nearly 12,000 registered hopefuls,
have been qualified for the parliamentary vote," said senior
Interior Ministry official Hosseinali Amiri, the semi-official Fars
news agency reported.
Campaigning for the parliamentary election starts on Thursday and
lasts for a week.
AFTER KHAMENEI
Even if his hardline allies were to lose the parliamentary race to
their moderate rivals, Khamenei will continue to hold ultimate
authority in matters of state, while presidents and lawmakers will
come and go.
Khamenei, supporting the Guardian Council's strict vetting, has
repeatedly warned that Iran's enemies have sought to use the
elections to "infiltrate" its power structure.
"I won’t get tired of saying the truth again and again ... The enemy
pursues infiltration into the elections. People must be aware of
that and act against what the enemies seek," Khamenei said on
Wednesday,
Moderates want to have a say in choosing Khamenei's successor by
winning more seats in the assembly, whose 88 elected members will
remain in place until 2024.
In the past, debate about Khamenei's possible successor was
considered as undermining the supreme leader, but public discussion
has gained momentum ahead of the elections.
"Khamenei is 76 years old and he has medical issues. The Assembly of
Experts' vote will designate future of Iran because the next
assembly has to pick the next leader," said a Tehran-based analyst
on condition of anonymity.
In a move which may have been aimed at maintaining hardline
domination of the assembly, the Guardian Council approved only
around 166 candidates out of 801 registered hopefuls.
"The Assembly vote is very important ... They will select the
supreme leader when it is necessary ... Therefore the enemy is very
sensitive about the Assembly," Khamenei said.
Among those disqualified from the assembly was Hassan Khomeini, an
ally of Rouhani and a grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the
late leader of Iran's 1979 revolution.
The supreme leader has substantial influence, or constitutional
authority, over the executive, legislative and judicial branches of
government as well as the military and media.
"With more moderates in the assembly, Iran can have at least a less
hardline leader after Khamenei or even a moderate leadership council
to lead the country," the analyst said.
Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani angered hardliners
in December when he said the assembly would be open to choosing "a
council of leaders if needed" instead of a single supreme leader who
rules for life.
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Rouhani and Rafsanjani are both members of the assembly and will run
again in next week's vote.
Under Iran's constitution, a transitional "Leadership Council" is
permitted until a supreme leader is selected by the assembly. But
analysts said Rafsanjani advocated a permanent council, fiercely
rejected by Khamenei's hardline allies.
FRIENDLY PARLIAMENT
The outcome of the parliamentary vote, essentially a contest between
hardline and moderate factions, will have no big impact on Iranian
foreign policy. But it will boost the victorious faction's influence
in next year's presidential election.
A friendly parliament could strengthen Rouhani's hand to push
through economic reforms to open up the country to foreign trade and
investment. It can also help the government carry out a political
agenda aimed at expanding social and economic liberties, as promised
during his 2013 election campaign.
"A moderate-dominated Majles (parliament) will not challenge
Rouhani's promised reforms as the current one did. Harmony between
the executive and legislation bodies will help officials to serve
people better," said a senior Iranian official.
Moderates hope that economic and political benefits of the nuclear
deal would translate into votes for Rouhani's allies in the polls.
"Iranians understand that if they want reforms, they should have a
moderate parliament to help Rouhani carry out his social and
cultural policies," said the official.
But many voters - particularly women and young people - who pinned
their hopes in 2013 on Rouhani to bring social change and greater
freedom, have grown disillusioned since he took office and may be
reluctant to support his candidates next week.
Rights campaigners say there have been few, if any, moves to bring
about greater political and cultural freedoms.
Analysts said the stakes for Khamenei are high and he will seek to
limit Rouhani's popularity and influence.
"Losing control over the parliament would be a major political blow
to hardliners, who then only would have control over the judiciary
among Iran's three branches," said political analyst Hamid
Farahvashian.
Khamenei appoints head of the judiciary, which has cracked down on
activists and journalists in the recent months, aimed at displaying
limits of Rouhani to create a freer society, demanded by moderate
supporters of the president.
Human rights groups and the United Nations have criticized Iran for
what they say is a crackdown on freedom of expression and the media.
(Additional reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in Dubai; Writing by
Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Dominic Evans)
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