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The
study estimated that under a worst case scenario, in which the
reintroduction of controls at EU borders pushed import prices up
three percent, the costs to the bloc's largest economy Germany
could be as much as 235 billion euros between 2016 and 2025, and
those to France up to 244 billion.
At a minimum, with import prices rising one percent, the study
showed that a breakdown of Schengen would cost the EU roughly
470 billion euros over the next decade.
The cost would climb to 1.4 trillion euros, or roughly 10
percent of annual gross domestic product (GDP) in the 28-member
EU bloc, under the more dire scenario.
"If border controls are reinstated within Europe, already weak
growth will come under additional pressure," said Aart De Geus,
president of Bertelsmann.
Schengen was established over 30 years ago and now counts 26
members, 22 of which are EU members. But the system of
passport-free travel has come under severe pressure over the
past half year due to a flood of migrants entering Europe,
mainly from the Middle East and Africa.
To stem the tide and to ensure they have an overview of who is
entering their territory, many countries within Schengen have
reintroduced border controls in recent months, leading to fears
the whole system could collapse.
Underscoring the urgency of the issue, Germany's Interior
Minister Thomas de Maiziere told public broadcaster ARD on
Sunday that EU member states, which have been squabbling for
months over how to tackle the migrant crisis, must agree a
common approach within two weeks if they wanted to avoid such a
fate.
In addition to being a devastating symbolic setback for Europe,
a collapse of Schengen would increase the amount of time it
takes for goods to be transported across European borders,
raising costs for companies and consumers.
The Bertelsmann study, conducted by Prognos AG, estimated that
the minimum costs to Germany and France would be 77 billion
euros and 80.5 billion euros, respectively, over the period to
2025.
A collapse of Schengen would also increase costs for countries
outside the zone, with the combined burden on the United States
and China over the next decade estimated at between 91 billion
and 280 billion euros, according to the study.
(Reporting by Noah Barkin; Editing by Dominic Evans)
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