After nearly two months of negotiations between Washington and
Beijing, China agreed on Thursday to a U.S. proposal that would
dramatically tighten existing restrictions on North Korea after its
Jan. 6 nuclear test and recent rocket launch.
The draft, seen by Reuters, would require U.N. member states to
conduct mandatory inspections of all cargo passing through their
territory to or from North Korea and bans all gold exports, as well
as exports of coal if proceeds fund the North's weapons programs.
For China, which accounts for 90 percent of North Korean trade, that
means stepping up inspections at sea ports such as Dalian and in the
border city of Dandong, through which much of the trade between the
countries passes.
China, which defended North Korea in the 1950-53 Korean War, is
Pyongyang's closest ally and largest trading partner. While it has
become increasingly critical of the North's nuclear and missiles
programs, it prizes stability on the Korean peninsula.
"It might look like China is cooperating, but that'll just be on the
surface," said Kim Dong-yub at Kyungnam University's Institute of
Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
The two countries share a fairly porous 1,400 km (870 mile) border
where both legal and illicit trade has grown in recent years, and
off-the-books trade accounts for a significant share of commerce
between the two.
"Until these trade routes are shut off, the structure there makes it
too difficult for sanctions to effectively kick in," said Kim.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China believes the
new sanctions should be aimed at reining in North Korea's nuclear
and missile program, and should not affect ordinary people, and that
what is most needed is to get negotiations back on track.
Asked about criticism China had not fully enforced previous
sanctions, Hong disagreed. "China consistently strictly abides by
its relevant decisions," he said.
AT THE COAL FACE
The draft resolution targets impoverished North Korea's heavy
reliance on mineral exports by banning the sale or transfer of North
Korean coal, iron and iron ore if profits are deemed to be spent on
its nuclear or missile programs.
Minerals for sale which are "exclusively for livelihood purposes"
are exempted, which analysts said would be impossible to monitor.
"You can't determine which part of the mineral trade is related to
people's livelihoods or not," said Choi Kyung-soo, head of the North
Korea Resources Institute in Seoul, who made dozens of trips to
North Korean state mines between 2001 and 2008 as part of an
inter-Korean cooperation team.
China imported $852 million worth of North Korean coal last year and
$73 million worth of iron ore, according to Chinese customs data.
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Last year, North Korean coal deliveries to China surged 26.9 pct to
19.63 million tonnes, making North Korea China's third biggest
supplier behind Australia and Indonesia. Coal deliveries from
Australia plunged 25 percent, indicating the increase in imports may
have been to help support its ally.
'HUMANITARIAN PROBLEM'
Jin Qiangyi of China's Yanbian University, near the North Korean
border, told Reuters there was a "real possibility" such
far-reaching sanctions on top of an already moribund economy could
create a "humanitarian problem", and affect China's ability to
safely implement the proposed sanctions.
"China has to think about what will happen to the North Korean
economy, whether there will be other problems," said Jin.
Critics of sanctions argue they would stifle the country's fledgling
economy and hurt ordinary North Koreans.
A senior Western diplomat in Beijing who declined to be identified
said China remains wary of cutting off North Korea completely, and
insists ordinary North Koreans should not be punished for the
behavior of their leader.
The draft resolution also proposes banning all exports of aviation
fuel to North Korea, except for in "essential" and "humanitarian"
cases, which could make it difficult stage an air show planned for
September in the port city of Wonsan that is to include aerobatic
displays by the North Korean air force.
Much of North Korea's aviation fuel appears to come from China. In
2015, the isolated country spent $876.6 million importing 1,414
tonnes of Chinese jet fuel according to Chinese customs data -
enough for North Korea to operate its fleet of largely Soviet-era
military aircraft.
"The draft is very strong and, if adopted as now written, was
definitely worth the wait it took to plug loopholes and toughen
restrictions on transport and finance," William Newcomb, a former
member of the United Nations Panel of Experts on North Korea, told
Reuters.
"Implementation remains a challenge, however. Not even all members
of the Security Council have implemented past resolutions".
(Additional reporting by David Stanway, Megha Rajagopalan and Ben
Blanchard in BEIJING and Louis Charbonneau and Michelle Nichols at
the UNITED NATIONS; Editing by Tony Munroe and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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