|
 Ahead of its annual meeting in Davos next week, the group's
2016 Global Risks report on Thursday ranked the migrant crisis
as the biggest single risk in terms of likelihood, while climate
change was seen as having the greatest potential impact.
Around 60 million people have been displaced by conflicts from
Syria to South Sudan, pushing refugee flows to record levels
that are some 50 percent higher than during World War II.
Coupled with attacks such as those on Paris last year and
geopolitical fault lines stretching from the Middle East to the
South China Sea, the world is today arguably less politically
stable than at any time since the end of the Cold War.
Economic fears, particularly for Chinese growth, and
increasingly frequent extreme weather events are further red
flags, resulting in a greater breadth of risks than at any time
in the survey's 11-year history.
"Almost every risk is now up over the last couple of years and
it paints an overall environment of unrest," said John Drzik,
head of global risk at insurance broker Marsh, who helped
compile the report.
"Economic risks have come back reasonably strongly, with China,
energy prices and asset bubbles all seen as significant problems
in many countries."
Last year, the threat of conflict between states topped the list
of risks for the first time, after previous editions mostly
highlighted economic threats.
British finance minister George Osborne, one of those heading to
the Alpine ski resort set the mood last week, warning that 2016
opened "with a dangerous cocktail of new threats".
The Jan. 20-23 Davos meeting will bring together players from
geopolitical hot spots such as the foreign ministers of
arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as the biggest ever
U.S. delegation, including Vice President Joe Biden.
[to top of second column] |
North Korea's invitation, however, has been revoked, after it
conducted a nuclear test, defying a United Nations ban.
CYBER RISK A WILD CARD
The immediate problems of Middle East tensions, China's turbulent
markets and a tumbling oil price are likely to dominate corridor
conversations at Davos.
But long-term concerns identified in the report center more on
physical and societal trends, especially the impact of climate
change and the danger of attendant water and food shortages.
While last month's climate deal in Paris may act as a signal to
investors to spend trillions of dollars to replace coal-fired power
with solar panels and windmills, it is only a first step.
For businesses, the transition from fossil fuels remains uncertain,
especially as political instability increases the risk of disrupted
and canceled projects.
One wild card is cyber attack, which business leaders in several
developed countries, including the United States, Japan and Germany,
rank as a major risk to operations, although it does not make the
top threat list overall.
The report analyzed 29 global risks for both likelihood and impact
over a 10-year horizon by surveying nearly 750 experts and decision
makers.
(Editing by Alexander Smith)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
