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 But Republican Donald Trump's 2016 White House bid has motivated
Wade to get involved and he plans to support the real estate mogul
in Nevada’s nominating caucus next month. Trump is a
"non-politician" who can fix the "chaos" in Washington, he says.
About one in 10 Americans who plan to cast a vote this election will
do so for the first time in years, if ever, and Trump holds a
decided edge with them, according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos.
(http://tmsnrt.rs/1SgeLvi)
These voters offer Trump a pool of voters who could be decisive
either in the Republican primaries or a general election. They could
be crucial for Trump in early-voting states such as Iowa and South
Carolina, where his nearest rival, Senator Ted Cruz, is putting
pressure on Trump and enjoys a strong base of support with more
traditionally conservative voters.
In Reuters/Ipsos polling from June to December 2015, 27.3 percent of
these “new” voters said they would vote for Trump, higher than his
poll numbers among independents and Republicans who regularly vote.
By way of comparison, Cruz captures just 3.4 percent of these
voters. And Senator Marco Rubio of Florida snags only 4 percent.
“I’m tired of the chaos between Democrats and Republicans and want
to give somebody a try who I think can make a difference,” said Wade
of Trump.
 The 51-year-old has already switched his affiliation from Democrat
to Republican and even attended a Trump campaign event in Las Vegas.
He has told his three older children to get involved in the
elections, although he did not say whether he wanted them to vote
for Trump.
Trump, the Republican front-runner, has made targeting “lost” voters
such as Wade a focus of his campaign. His anti-immigrant rhetoric
and protectionist trade proposals have helped him to fashion a
message tailored to reach Americans alienated by the endless enmity
between the political parties and who, because of declining economic
prospects, may feel like neither party has done much for them.
Trump’s strategy is a gamble, given the lack of reliability of many
of the voters with whom he is most popular.
In interviews, some of those lost voters insist they will show up,
saying they are drawn to Trump’s outsider status and his willingness
to upend the political system.
PAGING A PIRANHA
Tucson, Arizona, resident Renay Cunningham, 56, said she had never
paid much attention to politics in the past. She plans to cast her
first ever vote for Trump after hearing his proposed policies to
curb illegal immigration, which include building a giant wall on the
southern border and making Mexico pay for it.
“We need a piranha in there, and he’s definitely a piranha,” she
said.
Trump and his operatives are confident they can do what few of his
rivals for the Republican nomination have shown they can do — expand
the party’s potential voter pool.
But while Democrat Barack Obama did that eight years ago by largely
registering new voters, including record levels of minorities, both
male and female, in urban centers, Trump’s campaign has instead
largely sought out the disaffected, who tend to be overwhelmingly
older, white, and less educated than the broader electorate.
“My whole campaign has been focused on expanding the number of
people who want to, and will, participate in this election cycle,”
Trump wrote in a recent op-ed in USA Today.
When analyzing “lost” or “new” voters, Reuters compiled poll results
from people who haven’t voted in the previous two presidential
campaigns and midterm congressional elections.
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The results focused only on those who said they were nearly certain
to vote in the November election. It included responses from 3,440
“new” Republican and independent voters – a sample that has a
credibility interval of 2 percentage points.
Jan Leighley, an expert on turnout at American University, said it’s
too soon to compare Trump’s “new” voters with the disenfranchised
voters, especially minorities, who in 2008 turned out in record
numbers to elect the first black president.
Those voters didn’t find their way to the polls simply because they
were inspired to make history, Leighley said. “He also had a
kick-ass mobilization structure."
“Obama’s campaign went door-to-door. They canvassed whole
neighborhoods. “I don’t know if he (Trump) has the campaign
infrastructure to make sure that the folks who are riled up are
walked to the polls on Election Day,” she said.
CHANGING THE RULES
Trump’s campaign insists he does have the infrastructure, but won’t
provide specifics on how it intends to turn casual supporters into
engaged voters. The campaign says it does follow up with the
thousands of attendees who jam arenas for Trump’s rallies.
That’s one significant advantage the reality star has over the other
candidates in the Republican field, as the challenge in reaching
voters who have fallen out of the political process often lies in
simply locating them.
“We’ve identified a lot of people in early primary states who have
not participated in the process before,” campaign manager Corey
Lewandowski told Reuters.
Lewandowski resists the notion that Trump needs to turn out “new” or
reluctant voters to win states such as Iowa.
Even if the Trump campaign isn’t necessarily counting on them, it
may be reassuring that his supporters among “new” voters who
responded to the Reuters/Ipsos survey appear motivated to cast a
vote for him. At least for the time being.
Ronald Thomas, a 49-year-old truck driver and Navy veteran in North
Carolina, said he, too, has never voted in a presidential contest.
His girlfriend would push him to vote but he would always say "Yeah,
but the right one ain’t come along yet,’” Thomas said.
Trump is that man. His willingness to take on the government has set
him apart as someone who would "actually look out for the people,"
said Thomas. Now he wants to know how to register so that he can
vote for the billionaire.
And there’s Vince DiSylvester, a retired maintenance worker in
Missouri, who, at 73, said has never cast a ballot for president.
But Trump has inspired him to rethink that.
"He's a businessman, he knows business, he knows how to get things
done," he said. "And he tells it like it is. If you don't like it -
well, too bad."
(Editing by Ross Colvin)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
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