European stocks lick wounds after mauling, oil steady

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[January 21, 2016]  By Marc Jones
 
 LONDON (Reuters) - A small bounce in European shares and tentative stabilization in oil prices helped calm investors on Thursday, after a torrid few days that has wiped trillions of dollars off global markets.

A 3-percent slump in Chinese stocks had given Asia another bruising, so there was relief as 0.4-0.5 percent gains for London's FTSE, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 pulled markets out of their nosedive.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 hit its lowest since October 2014 on Wednesday and the MSCI All-World country index is at its lowest since mid 2013.

Oil prices, down more than 25 percent since the start of the year and one of the main drivers of the cross-asset rout, were also steadier at $27.60 for Brent and $27.95 for U.S. benchmark WTI.

The European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday and is expected keep already record-low interest rates on hold. Traders will be watching closely to see what impact the latest market turmoil is having on its decision makers.

"Europe is holding up a bit better which is welcome considering Asia equities continued to trade lower," Societe Generale strategist, Alvin Tan, said.
 


"For one thing, oil is not exactly rallying but at least it is holding on, and we have the ECB meeting today which is a big event, so I think people are just being a bit more restrained."

With nerves still fragile and risk appetite low, futures prices pointed to Wall Street's main S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial markets starting down 0.5 percent after they had closed at more than one-year lows on Wednesday. [.N]

The strain was also showing on euro zone periphery bonds. Portuguese 10-year yields saw a 12 basis points (bps) improvement on the day, but the gap with German equivalents was the widest since October 2014. [GVD/EUR]

In Italy, yields dipped to 1.57 percent, but their gap with Bunds was the widest since August last year.

In emerging markets the tensions were even more intense. MSCI's 23-country EM index notched a 6-1/2 year low and Russia's rouble tanked more than 4 percent as it set a record low against the dollar for a second day running.

The Krelin called the rouble moves "volatile" but said it was "not collapsing". A spokesman said President Vladimir Putin had no special meetings on the situation planned, though he was being kept regularly updated on the market moves.

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SUBMERGING MARKETS

Investors were getting ready for the ECB's 1245 GMT rate decision and the 1330 GMT news conference with the bank's head, Mario Draghi, where focus will be firmly on his view of this month's market slump.

Chinese stocks, which in tandem with oil have been the major trigger behind the global rout, ended down 3 percent after another volatile session there.

That in turn sent MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific excluding Japan to a new 4-year low. Japan's Nikkei ended down 2.4 percent too, adding to its 3.7 percent plunge in the previous session.

Shanghai-based investor director at Nanhai Fund Management Co, David Dai, said fears of a prolonged bear market were, nevertheless, overdone.

"With stocks having fallen so much, much of the risk has been priced in and another free-fall is quite unlikely, although the chance of a sustainable rebound is slim," he said.

In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six of the world's other biggest currencies, was down about 0.1 percent at 99.025.

The dollar fell roughly 0.1 percent to 116.75 yen after hitting 115.97 on Wednesday, undermined by U.S. data. Ahead of the ECB meeting, the euro was buying just over $1.09. Before the last one in December, it had been just above $1.05.

"Risk aversion related to global issues may result in periods of support for the euro," Credit Suisse currency analysts wrote. "Falling oil, however, raises risks that ECB may ease again," they said.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite in Tokyo; Editing by Louise Ireland)

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