|
 Researchers calculated the potential number of averted flu cases and
weeks of school lost per student under several scenarios set in the
United Kingdom to see which one might offer the best defense against
the spread of influenza with the least disruption to education.
Out of all the options explored, a nationwide school shutdown
appeared to be the least effective response to pandemic influenza
because it didn’t curb the rate of new cases more than targeted
closures that start with just a classroom, grade level, single
school or single county school system, the analysis found.
“Our results show that targeted school closures can reduce the
overall number of cases in the population, decrease the peak number
of cases – which is the moment of maximum stress for the healthcare
system during an epidemic – and postpone the epidemic peak – thus
gaining time, for example, for producing and delivering a vaccine,”
said lead study author Dr. Laura Fumanelli of the Bruno Kessler
Foundation in Trento, Italy.
Nationwide school closures aren’t a common response to pandemic
influenza for a wide range of logistical, educational and economic
reasons, Fumanelli added by email.
The goal of the current analysis published in PLOS Computational
Biology was to give decision makers insight into the potential
effectiveness of a variety of less aggressive school closure
approaches all based on monitoring student absenteeism, Fumanelli
said.
School closures can be an important tool for combating pandemic
influenza because children are twice as susceptible to infection as
adults, the researchers note.
Targeted closures based on monitoring absenteeism might start with
school officials ordering an entire class to stay home for a period
of time once a set number of kids are home sick at one time.
Then, if multiple classes in the same grade are ordered to stay
home, schools might escalate their response by making all students
in that grade stay home. When more than two grades are shut down,
then the entire school may close.
When a certain number of students are home sick or a certain number
of classes or schools are effectively shut down, countywide closures
might also occur.
[to top of second column] |
The analysis didn’t directly consider the social or economic costs
of school closures, but keeping children out of school might require
parents to miss work, potentially burdening employers with lost
productivity and straining family finances, Fumanelli said.
“The aim of this kind of analysis is precisely to provide policy
with quantitative estimates supporting their decisions on whether
adopting targeted school closure strategies makes sense or not, and
on the most cost-effective options,” Fumanelli said.
It’s still hard to say how these scenarios would play out in the
real world, as a pandemic unfolds in real time, noted Dr. Thomas
House, a mathematics researcher at the University of Manchester in
the U.K. who wasn’t involved in the study.
“The most recent influenza pandemic provided very strong evidence
that school-age children are central to the spread of pandemic
influenza, and that transmission was substantially reduced during
times when schools were closed,” House said by email.
Among all the challenges involved in implementing targeted school
closures, the biggest difficulty is one of timing, House added.
“Timing closures so that they come just before a peak is the most
important determinant of success, but it is hard to estimate exactly
where a peak will come in advance,” House said.
SOURCE: http://bit.ly/1KJAP9p PLOS Computational Biology, online
January
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
