Pacific
trade deal to raise U.S. annual incomes by $131 billion:
study
Send a link to a friend
[January 25, 2016]
By David Lawder
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trans-Pacific
Partnership trade deal would raise U.S. incomes by $131 billion annually
after 2030, and a one-year delay in its implementation would cost $77
billion in lost income, a think-tank study showed on Monday.
|
The Peterson Institute for International Economics said its analysis
of the TPP deal reached in October between the United States and 11
other Pacific Rim countries found that it would boost U.S. exports
by $357 billion annually, and by $1.025 trillion annually for all
TPP countries together.
Annual incomes for the 12 TPP countries would be $465 billion higher
after full implementation in 2030 and $492 billion higher for the
whole world, Peterson said.
The study from the Washington-based, pro-trade economic policy group
took a neutral stance on overall job effects, however, using a
forecasting model that assumed no net change in employment directly
resulting from the pact -- only shifts in allocations of jobs.
It did show that there would be some 53,700 U.S. jobs that would
"churn" annually during TPP's 15-year implementation period,
resulting in job losses in some sectors offset by gains in others.
It estimates that by 2030, some 796,000 jobs will have been added in
U.S. export activities due to TPP, with some of these shifted from
firms facing stiffer import competition.
"The present analysis does indicate that the benefits of the TPP to
the U.S. economy will greatly outweigh adjustment costs,
and that economy-wide price and employment consequences will be
limited," Peterson said in the report.
Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress have yet to schedule a vote
on TPP, which is viewed as essential to the pact's success. Some
prominent lawmakers have cautioned against trying to approve it
before the 2016 U.S. presidential election in November.
Many TPP opponents in Congress have raised concerns about the trade
deal's effects on existing U.S. manufacturing plants, particularly
in industries that are vulnerable to low-cost imports, such as auto
parts, steel and apparel.
[to top of second column] |
While the Peterson study estimated that overall employment in
manufacturing would continue to grow in the United States, TPP would
reduce that growth rate by one-fifth, resulting in 121,000 fewer
manufacturing jobs in 2030 than without the pact.
U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said in a statement that
the Peterson study "shows that TPP will raise wages for American
workers, grow our economy, and help farmers and businesses export
more 'Made in America' products."
The study assumes that implementation of TPP would start in 2017. If
this were delayed by one year to 2018, it would reduce the present
value of the increased U.S. income generated by the trade deal by
around $77 billion, with a possible range of $59 billion to $115
billion.
(Reporting By David Lawder; Editing by Kim Coghill)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
|