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 It would be hard to find a more ideal metaphor for the forces
tearing asunder the Republican Party.
For months, Trump has chosen to operate in his own political
universe, violating the conventional wisdom that governs
presidential campaigns, thumbing his nose at conservative
institutions ranging from the Fox News Channel to the National
Review and advocating policies at odds with party orthodoxy.
And whether he wins the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Trump’s candidacy
promises to continue to upend the established political order as the
presidential race intensifies ahead of the Nov. 8 election. Most
national opinion polls have him with more than 30 percent of the
Republican primary electorate — and those voters are showing little
sign of switching to anyone else.
“I think he will have made a permanent impact on the process,” Newt
Gingrich, the former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives
and a 2012 presidential candidate, told Reuters. Trump’s campaign,
he said, “is one of those great disruptions that reshapes
everything.”
Tensions within the Republican Party between grassroots
conservatives and the Washington establishment have been simmering
since the Tea Party movement arose during President Barack Obama’s
first term, catapulting presidential contenders Senators Ted Cruz,
Marco Rubio and Rand Paul to office, among others.
 NEW FISSURES
But Trump’s insurgent candidacy has carved new fissures into the
party, splitting conservative talk-radio hosts, religious leaders,
and Washington pundits, with some sounding the alarm while others
implore the party to respond to the anger toward Republican
incumbents among voters who are fueling Trump’s rise.
The billionaire businessman has mounted his campaign on the notion
of the fading American working-class, arguing they are under threat
by both free trade deals favored by Republicans that encourage
companies to send jobs overseas and by waves of illegal immigrants
that work for low wages.
“People are upset. People believe that promises made have not been
promises kept. There comes a point when you’ve had it,” said Iowa
Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, who has appeared at Trump
rallies.
Trump’s candidacy threatens to scramble the Republican coalition
built since the presidency of Ronald Reagan, one that worked to
unite evangelical Christians and other social conservatives,
economic conservatives, and military hawks behind a standard-bearer.
The New York real estate tycoon and former reality TV star does not
check many of those boxes. He shocked evangelicals here when he told
them he has never asked God for forgiveness and spends little time
on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. He has threatened
to slap tariffs on imported goods to protect American jobs and raise
taxes on hedge-fund managers. He has decried the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan and has sounded reluctant to deeply involve U.S. forces
in the conflict in Syria.
“He is attracting people of all kinds of backgrounds who have never
thought of themselves as Republicans,” Gingrich said. “I think it’s
very hard for traditional political observers to understand (what’s
happening).”
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Early during Thursday’s debate in Des Moines, it seemed that the
seven Republicans on the stage worked collectively to try and wean
voters in Iowa and elsewhere off of Trump, with some dismissing him
as an entertainer and others blasting his policy stances. His
absence loomed over the entire event.
And Trump demonstrated the sway he holds over the race when it was
revealed that Fox News executives had made an 11th-hour pitch to woo
him back onto the debate stage, handing him a rhetorical victory of
sorts even as his rivals seemed to relish his absence.
He also was joined at his event in Des Moines by two other
Republican presidential candidates, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum
— perhaps an acknowledgement that Trump’s campaign may be a
juggernaut now that may not be able to be stopped and that it might
be time to climb aboard.
A NEW FORMULA?
Cruz alluded at the debate to the need to bring order to what has
been a chaotic campaign.
“Anyone who is able to win in the Republican Party has to be able to
bring together the disparate elements of the Reagan coalition,” he
said. “You've got to be able to bring together conservatives and
evangelicals and libertarians, and stitch together a winning
majority.”
But Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist who is not aligned with
any candidate, said Cruz may be too beholden to the conventional
ways to win the nomination.
“What resonates (for voters) is not just Trump’s bravado, it’s that
the everyday man thinks he’s fighting for him,” O’Connell said.
“Cruz assumes being a conservative means an ideological checklist.
For a lot of others in the party, or for some who have left the
party, it’s more of a feeling.”
Even as the seven candidates argued among themselves about who is
best positioned to challenge Trump for the nomination, analytics
provided by Google during the debate showed Trump eclipsed all of
them in terms of number of searches.
And if Trump loses next Monday in Iowa — he’s locked in a close race
with Cruz in the state — polls show him with large leads in New
Hampshire and South Carolina, the next states to hold nominating
contests.
"This is not something that fits into some nice little tight box.
That is the beauty of Trump," O'Connell said. "I think he could be
the nominee. And I think he could actually win the presidency."
(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
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