Sterling leaps, global stocks stall as BoE holds fire on Brexit response

[July 14, 2016]  By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling surged and world shares stopped in their tracks having hit an eight-month high on Thursday, as the Bank of England unexpectedly opted to keep its post-Brexit powder dry for at least few more weeks.

Talk of more stimulus from Japan had put markets in a bullish mood ahead of what had been tipped as the BoE's first interest rate cut since 2009. So its decision to hold off, although probably only until August, stalled the momentum.

European stocks and Wall Street futures trimmed some their day's gains. London's FTSE went from being up 0.8 percent to flat within minutes as sterling ramped up 1.8 percent and 1.3 percent against the dollar <GBP=> and the euro <GBPEUR=> respectively.

That put the pound on course for its best week since 2009 while British government bonds <GB10YT=RR> were ditched as investors betting on a shock-and-awe strategy from BoE chief Mark Carney began to retreat.

"There’s going to be a bit of disappointment in financial markets. They had taken Carney’s earlier comments about easier monetary policy to heart, said Aberdeen Asset Management economist Paul Diggle.

"But the next meeting is only three weeks away, and by then Carney and his colleagues will have a few extra post-referendum data points to digest as well as a new set of forecasts so the market should get its way then."

Sterling rose as high as $1.3480, up more than 2 percent, before easing, while the euro climbed to a nine-day high of $1.1165 as traders began to trim their expectations of further ECB stimulus this year.

The potential for BOE action next month, which investors believe could set off another round of global central bank- and government-led stimulus, meant broader markets were not too be pushed off course.

MSCI's 46-country All World index  was barely budged from an eight-month high it had hit in early European trading and Wall Street was set to add around 0.6 percent to Wednesday's latest record high.

In the currency market, the pound wasn't the only big mover.

The yen fell to 105.67 yen per dollar <JPY=> down 4 percent since the start of the week, which if it holds will be the sharpest drop since 1999 and the sixth biggest since the end of the Bretton Woods era over 40 years ago.

Helping fuel the move was a report that former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had floated the idea of perpetual bonds with one of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's key advisers in April.

Abe called for fiscal stimulus, expected to reach about 2 percent of GDP, following an upper house election victory that strengthened his grip on power on Sunday.

"We've heard a lot of talk about fiscal policy out of Japan. Something will happen on that front. The big question is whether there will be further monetary easing and coordination of the two," said Societe Generale's Alvin Tan.

A trader walks past the German DAX Index board on the trading floor at the Frankfurt stock exchange, Germany, June 24, 2016, after Britain voted to leave the European Union in the EU BREXIT referendum. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo

EMERGING SURGING

Emerging markets remained firmly on the front foot as they continued to benefit from the prospect of more cheap money from big central banks.

The benchmark emerging equities index was up for a sixth straight day to leave it up 9 percent over the last two weeks. The average premium investors demand to hold emerging sovereign dollar bonds versus U.S. Treasuries has also fallen to its lowest in over a year.

"This is a yield-hungry environment and EM does stack up as an asset class that does offer yield," said Steve Ellis, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International.
 

In developed bond markets, benchmark 10-year U.S and German  government debt yields rose around 3 basis points following a similar rise in British equivalents, which were up 4 bps at 0.79 percent .

U.S.-focused investors were waiting for weekly jobless claims data and speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers including centrist Dennis Lockhart.

Stocks watchers meanwhile were combing through earnings reports. JPMorgan's quarterly profit beat expectations to send its shares up 2.5 percent in premarket deals, with analysts also keen to hear what impact the bank expects Brexit to have.

Among commodities, gold dipped and industrial metals rose on the higher market confidence while oil recovered more than $1 a barrel after some sharp losses on Wednesday.

Brent was at $47.31 a barrel and U.S. crude at $45.65, having moved up swiftly as the dollar slipped after the surprise BoE decision.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by John Stonestreet)

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