|
 "My life is my cattle. I have never seen it so bad...It will take me
years to get them back," the 67-year-old said of his livestock,
often the main measure of household wealth in rural African
economies.
Farmers, game reserves and central bankers across southern Africa
are among those set to count the cost for years to come of the
drought that wiped out livestock, pushed up food prices and caused
power shortages and protests.
The 2015/2016 El Nino weather system, the Pacific Ocean phenomenon
associated with droughts, storms and floods, baked southern Africa
before ending in May.
This coincided with a slump in commodity prices that pressured
African exporters' budgets, eroded currencies and deepened economic
misery as well as challenging central bankers faced with higher
prices and slow economic growth.
Central banks across the region have raised interest rates to cool
prices and there is little sign of relief.
"There are as yet no clear signs of a recovery in the agricultural
sector, and food price inflation is expected to remain elevated for
some time," South Africa Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said
last week.
In Malawi, where half the population needs food aid, June inflation
accelerated to 22.6 percent from 21.5 percent in May, with food
inflation running at 27.7 percent. The kwacha currency has lost
close to 60 percent of its value against the dollar the last 12
months.
In South Africa, the continent's biggest producer of maize, the crop
is projected to fall almost 30 percent to around 7 million tonnes,
which will force Africa's most industrialized country to import
close to 4 million tonnes.
Futures for white maize, the staple food, doubled last year and
while prices are now 20 percent below January's record peaks of over
5,000 rand a ton, time lags mean increases are still filtering
through the pipeline.
Food inflation in South Africa soared to 12.8 percent in April from
4.1 percent in June last year and remains over 12 percent,
pressuring the wider inflation rate which stands at 6.3 percent,
above the central bank's target range.
"Food inflation in South Africa is likely to remain high throughout
the year," said Wandile Sihlobo, head economist with Agbiz, a farm
industry lobby group.
FOOD SHORTAGES
This is fueling wage demands of between 20 and 50 percent from
mining unions, whose members on average have eight people depending
on them to put food on the table.
Such demands, even if only partly met, will further stoke prices,
adding to the dilemma of the central bank which has raised rates by
200 basis since early 2014 but does not want to choke an economy it
forecasts to stagnate this year.
In Zimbabwe, which is in arrears of $1.8 billion on $8.3 billion of
foreign debt and has fallen behind on salary payments to soldiers
and teachers, the United Nations estimates 20 percent of the
population needs food aid because of the drought.
This number is expected to rise to 44 percent or more than 4 million
people by early 2017.
[to top of second column] |
Hunger, combined with a cash crunch, is seen as one of the causes
behind a one-day "stay at home" protest in Zimbabwe earlier this
month, the biggest strike since 2005 against President Robert
Mugabe's long rule.
"In Zimbabwe, the food shortages have added to cash shortages and
perceptions of corruption, it is another factor that has driven
great frustration," said Robert Besseling, executive director at
business risk consultancy Exx Africa.
The Southern African Development Community has appealed for $2.4
billion to help up to 40 million people across the region in urgent
need of support until the next grain harvest in April 2017.
In Zambia, Africa's second-biggest copper producer, the drought
caused power shortages because water levels in the Kariba
hydro-electric dam sank as low as 12 percent in January.
Analysts say the situation remains precarious, though the government
has said that power supplies are being restored.
FLOOD RISK
Forecasts suggest that El Nino will be replaced by La Nina, a
weather pattern that often brings rainfall to southern Africa, which
could fill dams and help some in the region recover.
"The soil is the driest in the 20 years that I've been here," said
Gerhard Visser, who runs a game ranch in South Africa's northern
Limpopo province.
"If the rains come, I might recover in two years."
He said he had to sell off over half his herd, or 600 impala.
But with the land parched, heavy rainfall may bring more problems.
"In Mozambique, the dry ground could lead to floods during the
upcoming rainy seasons," said Mark Sorbara, an analyst with
London-based Africa Risk Consulting.
"More importantly the poor harvest will also negatively impact the
ability of farmers to plant for next year which will extend El
Nino’s effects into 2017."
(Editing by James Macharia and Anna Willard)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. |
