Brexit fear factor sends
stocks spinning
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[June 13, 2016]
By Patrick Graham
LONDON (Reuters) - Fears Britain is on the
verge of voting to leave the European Union next week coursed through
global financial markets on Monday, sending Asian and European shares
sharply lower and the pound to an eight-week low.
The world economy is looking shaky and weak jobs data suggest even the
United States is not ready for the higher interest rates that banks say
they need to shore up profitability, while concerns that a vote for
Brexit could tip Europe back into recession have lurked in the
background for weeks.
Those concerns came to the fore on Monday, however, as European shares
<.FTEU3> fell 1.5 percent drop and Asian stock markets logged their
biggest falls in four months after a poll late on Friday gave Britain's
"Leave" camp a 10-point lead.
Other polls are tighter, but money markets have now abandoned
expectations, high just weeks ago, that the U.S. Federal Reserve could
raise official borrowing costs on Wednesday, just 8 days before the UK
vote. Instead, the worry is that the Fed could use language that quells
expectations of a move this year at all.
More broadly, after eight years of ultra-low rates and outright
money-printing, investors wonder if central banks have much ammunition
left should the uncertainty that a Brexit would bring for thousands of
businesses weaken demand and investment further.
"We're in uncharted territory in front of the Brexit vote, and then
there's also the Fed this week. So the wall of worry is quite high at
the moment," said Zeg Choudhry, managing director at LONTRAD.
"All the banks are a little bit lower, and they're the ones which are
likely to get hit. For the next two weeks, you've got to be slightly mad
if you've not got your money in defensive stocks."
The news out of China, global investors' other big concern this year,
was poor, with data showing fixed-asset investment slipped below 10
percent for the first time since 2000. Stock markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong
and Shanghai all fell by around 3 percent.
Moves in Europe, where investors have been preparing for the British
vote for months, were only slightly more subdued. The Frankfurt and
Paris stock exchanges both fell around 1.5 percent.
The index of major European bank shares, hammered this year by concerns
over the impact prolonged negative interest rates are already having on
lenders' profitability, fell 2.2 percent.
In contrast, Britain's FTSE 100 fell just 0.4 percent, and both Deutsche
Bank and JP Morgan said they remained overweight UK equities into the
vote.
"In the case of a 'Leave' vote in the UK referendum ... we expect UK
equities to outperform the European market, given the likely GBP
(British pound) depreciation in such a scenario as well as the market's
defensive sector structure," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note.
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A man walks past a display of the Nikkei average and other market
indices outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 19, 2016. Japan's
Nikkei share average soared on Tuesday morning, as a weak yen and a
bounce in oil prices helped the market erase a sharp drop from the
previous day. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
YEN BREAK
On currency markets, sterling fell almost 1 percent against the dollar
after sinking by as much as 3 full cents in value on Friday. It was down
by more, 1.2 percent, at 79.86 pence per euro.
Options market pricing howed expectations for the biggest swings against
the euro on record, and analysts at UBS raised the prospect of a cut in
British interest rates and another round of quantitative easing if the
economy struggles after the referendum.
"If activity does slow further beyond the end of the second quarter, the
market is likely to rapidly start considering how (the Bank of England)
may choose to enact any further easing," economists from the Swiss group
said in a note.
The Bank of England meets on Thursday. [BOE]
Traditionally investors' first choice in times of financial and economic
stress, the yen climbed 1 percent against both the dollar and euro.
Those gains took the Japanese currency past long-term resistance around
106.50 yen per dollar and put more pressure on the Bank of Japan to act
against the currency's 14 percent rise this year when it ends a regular
meeting on Thursday.
"While the pound is the worst-performing G10 currency versus the dollar
this year, the yen is by far the best," said Derek Halpenny, European
Head of Global Markets Research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.
"The continued surge of the yen will lift expectations that the BOJ may
surprise the markets and announce some additional monetary easing."
(Additional reporting by Alistair Smout in London; Editing by Hugh
Lawson)
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