Good Morning America:
Britain just voted out of the EU ... What's that mean
for America?
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[June 24, 2016]
By Dan Burns
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Britons have voted
to leave the European Union, an outcome that has shocked global
financial markets, sending stocks plunging and sovereign bonds and
the U.S. dollar sharply higher.
The decision is expected to have global implications, some of which
may take years to play out. Here are some effects Americans can
expect to feel as a result of so-called "Brexit."
RETIREMENT FUNDS
On balance, about half of most Americans' retirement funds are
invested in stocks, and they are expected to take a beating on the
worry that the British decision to leave the EU will destabilize the
global economy and torpedo corporate profits.
Early Friday, equity index futures were pointing to declines in
excess of 3 percent for major U.S. benchmark indexes like the
Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
While Treasury bonds are rallying on the result, courtesy of their
status as a global safe-haven asset, those price gains mean that
already meager bond yields are going even lower. This diminishes
their ability to deliver substantial income for investors and
savers.
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MORTGAGE RATES AND HOME PRICES
One upside could be for would-be homeowners, or those looking to
refinance or with adjustable-rate loans. For them the cost for
buying a house is likely to drop, at least in the near term.
Even before the Brexit vote, the average interest rate for a 30-year
fixed-rate mortgage was at its lowest since May 2013 at 3.76
percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
On Friday the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note <US10YT=RR>,
to which most mortgages are indexed, dropped to below 1.50 percent,
meaning borrowing costs for home purchases should head lower as
well. The last time the 10-year note yield was this low was 2012,
and that coincided with the average 30-year mortgage rate briefly
dropping below 3.5 percent, the lowest in the post-World War Two
era.
That could add fuel to a pretty hot U.S. housing market. Existing
homes are selling at their fastest rate since 2007, while sales of
new homes are proceeding near their most brisk pace since 2008. Home
prices in the 20 largest metropolitan areas are, on average, the
highest since late 2007.
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People gather around a television in The Churchill Tavern, a British
themed bar, as the BBC announces that Britain has voted to leave the
European Union, in the Manhattan borough of New York, U.S., June 24,
2016. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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THE DOLLAR
The U.S. dollar is rising sharply, which could put the brakes on U.S. exports,
damaging the sales and profits of dozens of multinational companies based in the
United States.
Add to that the fact that Britain is the No. 5 buyer of U.S. goods and services,
totaling about $56 billion last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The
British pound has plummeted by the most ever in a single day, about 8 percent,
to its weakest level in three decades, and that will make U.S. products
substantially more expensive in the United Kingdom.
But that's not all. The dollar has also surged by nearly 3 percent against the
euro, and the EU is an even bigger export market for the United States, totaling
$272 billion last year.
That spells trouble for the hundreds of U.S. companies with substantial revenue
from Britain and the rest of Europe. Non-U.S. sales will now be worth less when
translated back into dollars. U.S. corporate profits are already in the fourth
consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines, to which the dollar's strength
over the last three years was a significant contributor. A renewed bout of
dollar strength risks extending that slump.
On the upside, traveling to Britain and the rest of Europe is likely to become
noticeably cheaper.
(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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