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 But a recent string of positive economic news has dragged markets
back closer to the Fed's overall outlook, allaying recession fears
and suggesting the Fed will have more credibility at its meeting
next week when it says further rate hikes this year remain firmly on
the table.
"Financial markets for a while were completely out in the weeds,
running around looking at things that turned out not to be real
risk," said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche
Bank.
When the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate in December for the
first time in a decade from near zero, its so-called "dot plot" of
policymakers' forecasts penciled in four quarter-point hikes this
year. Markets at the time priced in three increases.
Fed policymakers meet on March 15-16. They are expected to hold
interest rates steady and are seen likely nudging down their
expectations to three hikes for 2016.
As recently as two weeks ago, investors and traders had priced out
any rate rise this year. They currently expect one, according to an
analysis of fed funds futures by the CME Group.
MARKETS BOUNCE BACK
The S&P 500 <.SPX> dropped almost 10 percent from January through
mid-February on fears over China's rebalancing, a global growth
slowdown and low oil prices. The rout risked having a sustained
negative impact on the U.S. economy by tightening financial
conditions.
Those worries have begun to fade. The United States added 242,000
jobs last month, far more than expected and the unemployment rate
stands at 4.9 percent, near full employment. A total of 14.3 million
private-sector jobs have been created since 2010.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S.
economic activity, has also strengthened, posting for January its
largest gain in 10 months.
Since hitting its lowest level in two years on Feb. 11, the S&P 500
has risen 9.5 percent, while the 10-year Treasury yield <US10YT=RR>
has risen about 35 basis points to 1.90 percent early Thursday.
Other market measures also suggest improved investor views on
inflation and risk appetite. Their inflation outlook five years from
now reached 1.70 percent last week, the highest level since January
before easing to 1.59 percent this week.
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The risk premium on junk bonds over Treasuries shrank nearly 150
basis points this week to just over 7 percent, which was a two-month
low, according to an index compiled by Bank of America Merrill
Lynch.
Brent crude oil <LC0c1> has jumped to around $40 a barrel, up 45
percent from 12-year lows less than two months ago.
'NOT ONE AND DONE'
Fed policymakers have been banking in part on the effects of oil
price declines to dissipate, helping inflation move back toward the
central bank's 2-percent target rate as input costs trend higher.
The Fed said in December that future rate hikes were contingent on
actual progress on inflation, which has been below target for the
past four years. Core inflation jumped to 1.7 percent in the 12
months to January, the biggest rise since July 2014.
At the last meeting in January, the Fed took the unusual step of
pulling its risk assessment of the economy in its statement. Next
week's meeting could see a return, Fed watchers say.
In light of progress on inflation, the statement may also reflect
the Fed's desire not to get too far behind the curve.
"I do think that they want to signal to markets that it's not over,"
said Standard & Poor's U.S. chief economist Beth Ann Bovino. "It's
not a 'one and done' which had been talked about."
(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Additional reporting by Richard
Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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