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 Some of the activists said in interviews they feared a Trump win
could prompt many Latino Republicans, angry at his anti-immigrant
rhetoric, to stay home on Nov. 8, Election Day, or worse, support
the Democratic nominee.
"Sadly, the damage is going to be felt by the Republican Party for
years," said Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the U.S.
Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, of a possible Trump win in Florida on
March 15.
"This is a turning point," he said.
Trump has dominated opinion polls and early nominating contests, in
large part because of his pledge to build a wall along the border
with Mexico; his labeling of Mexicans as criminals and rapists; and
his accusations that immigrant workers steal American jobs.
That kind of talk is well received by many white Republican voters,
but not by minorities, polls show.
That's a problem for the party, because while the American
electorate has become more diverse in the last three years,
Republican support among Hispanic likely voters has shrunk, from
30.6 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in 2015, according to an analysis
of Reuters/Ipsos polling data. Meanwhile, Hispanic Democrats grew by
6 percentage points to 59.6 percent. (Graphic:
http://tmsnrt.rs/1Oj9SPi)
 Trump's campaign declined to comment, but he has consistently argued
he can win the Latino vote, in part because his companies have
employed thousands of Hispanics.
“They’re incredible people. They’re incredible workers. I love them.
I love them,” he said at a debate in February.
Much of the establishment wing of the Republican party has thrown
its weight behind Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a first-generation
Cuban American. Rubio, however, lags Trump by 15 points in polls in
Florida and may be forced out of the race if the New York
businessman bests him.
For Mark Gomez, a 20-year-old Cuban-American student at the
University of Miami and a Rubio volunteer, the differences between
Rubio's and Trump’s approaches hit home when earlier this month on
Twitter, a Trump supporter called him an “anchor baby.” Gomez was
born in the United States of Cuban refugee parents.
Immigration critics sometimes use "anchor babies" to describe
U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants, usually from Latin
America. Immigration groups say the phrase is offensive.
Trump, Gomez said, “is just playing into people's fears."
Rubio has toured Florida's Latino enclaves in recent weeks,
switching easily between Spanish and English at his rallies, while
his allied super PAC, or independent fundraising group, has outspent
all rivals combined in ads to boost him and erase Trump's polling
lead.
Among Rubio's challenges in besting Trump, however, could be drawing
in younger generations of Florida's Hispanics.
Unlike conservatives of the past, who could take the Cuban-American
vote in Florida for granted if they aggressively criticized the
Castro government in Cuba, candidates are dealing with a new
generation that is leaning more heavily to the Democratic Party.
A decade ago 64 percent of Cuban registered voters nationwide
identified with the Republican party. That's now down to 47 percent,
according to the Pew Research Center. And among young Cubans, from
18 to 49, more than half now identify with or lean toward the
Democrats.
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"A lot of those Cubans who come from the island, that resentment,
that pain, that hurt has really driven how they’ve reacted
politically. Our generation is a generation removed from that in a
lot of ways," said Gabriel Pendas, 33, of Miami. He called Rubio "so
outdated from how a lot of people feel."
"IDEAL CANDIDATE"
Following Mitt Romney’s defeat as the Republican party’s
presidential nominee in 2012, in which he received just 27 percent
of the Hispanic vote nationwide, the Republican National Committee
underwent an extensive and painful self-examination to determine the
root causes of its failure.
One thing was clear from the autopsy: The party needed to expand a
voter base skewing too white and too old.
The hope among party leaders, like Republican National Committee
Chairman Reince Preibus, was that a young, dynamic field of
candidates like Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and others, would
position the party well to reclaim some share of Latino vote from
the Democrats.
Rubio stood central to those hopes. Young, telegenic, bilingual, and
armed with a compelling backstory, he seemed made-to-order.
“Rubio’s tone, his aspirational message, his shared language and
culture, makes him an ideal candidate,” said Daniel Garza, director
of the LIBRE Institute in Miami, a conservative Hispanic advocacy
group.
But Trump, as he has done so often during this election season, took
a wrecking ball to those plans.
His hardline immigration stance forced many of his rivals -
including Cruz - to adopt a harsher approach on immigration, while
leaving others such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who has
dropped out of the race, adrift.
“We’ve lost an incredible opportunity,” said Alfonso Aguilar,
president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles,
referring to Trump's front-runner status.
Addressing a rally on Wednesday night in Hialeah, home to the
largest number of Cubans outside of Cuba, Rubio spoke in both
English and Spanish and urged supporters to "come out and vote in
massive numbers."
Awaiting Rubio at the rally, Cuban-born Ahmed Martel, 45, was asked
what he would do if Trump, not Rubio, was the party’s nominee in the
fall. “I won’t vote,” Martel said. “I can’t vote for him.”
(Additional reporting by Grant Smith and Maurice Tamman; Editing by
Richard Valdmanis and Ross Colvin)
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