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 Kasich's victory in Ohio's primary on Tuesday, along with the
departure from the race of U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, makes him the
party establishment's last hope of stopping the New York billionaire
businessman from winning the Republican nomination for the Nov. 8
election.
Trump and his closest rival, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, are
deeply unpopular among Republican insiders.
“I want you to know, the campaign goes on,” Kasich, 63, told a
victory rally near Cleveland. In a reference to Trump's fiery
campaign rhetoric, Kasich added: “I will not take the low road to
the highest office in the land.”
Trump, 69, notched wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina on
Tuesday and was projected by MSNBC to win a close race with Cruz in
Missouri. But losing Ohio’s winner-take-all contest for 66 delegates
complicates his attempt to clinch the 1,237 delegates needed to win
his party’s nomination before the party's July convention in
Cleveland.
With most of the remaining states allocating delegates
proportionally, Kasich’s aides believe he could prevail at a
convention at which no candidate enters with a majority.
 "The plan is to win Ohio, and some other states, and if that
happens, nobody is going to have enough delegates to win the
nomination on the first ballot," said John Weaver, Kasich's chief
campaign strategist, who also worked on Republican Senator John
McCain's losing presidential campaigns in 2000 and 2008.
Kasich’s plan, according to aides, is to leverage the momentum to
gather more endorsements from mainstream party insiders and
Republican donors.
With the wind at his back, he hopes to score more victories in
upcoming primaries including Pennsylvania, Maryland, Wisconsin,
Connecticut and California, where he believes the terrain is
friendlier to his brand of Republican moderation.
To become the nominee who faces Democratic contenders Hillary
Clinton or Bernie Sanders — in the November election — a Republican
needs to win a majority of the 2,472 Republican delegates. After
last night's contests, excluding Missouri's, Trump leads with 619
delegates, followed by Cruz with 394. Kasich has 136.
ESTABLISHMENT BACKING
If no candidate reaches that threshold by the close of the last
primary on June 7, the convention will almost certainly be contested
— a recent historical rarity that would signal deep party rifts. No
convention, by either party, has gone beyond a first ballot since
1952.
Kasich has almost no hope of winning enough delegates to secure the
nomination outright. Ohio is the lone state he has won. But if he
can succeed in blocking Trump from getting a majority, he can make a
case to convention delegates that he is more electable than Trump or
Cruz, 45, a conservative evangelical and, to date, Trump's most
successful Republican rival.
Signs of the Republican establishment rallying behind Kasich were on
show this week. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in
2012 who recently blasted Trump as a "fraud" in a scathing speech,
campaigned with Kasich in Ohio on Monday.
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"He has the kind of record that you want in Washington," Romney said
in North Canton, Ohio, on a stage next to Kasich, who spent 18 years
as a Republican congressman and six as Ohio governor. "You look at
this guy, and unlike the other people running, he has a real track
record."
On Wednesday, Kasich heads to a campaign event in Pennsylvania and
then holds three events in Utah on Friday — where Romney, the former
Massachusetts governor, is popular with Republicans. Utah, with 40
delegates, votes on March 27. Pennsylvania is one of five states
voting on April 26.
Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist who has stayed neutral in
this year's nominating fight, said Kasich's victory should earn him
more help from party insiders.
"There are really just two options left: Either Trump gets enough
delegates, or nobody does," O'Connell said. "Kasich's win in Ohio
means Trump must now win roughly 60 percent of the remaining
delegates before the convention. I would say we now have a 50-50
chance of a brokered convention."
O'Connell said that under Republican party rules, a candidate must
receive a clear majority of primary votes overall to become the
nominee.
The history of Republican nominating fights is littered with
candidates who received a plurality of the votes, but not a
majority, and never became the nominee.
HISTORY AS A GUIDE
Kasich’s aides are looking to history as a guide, particularly
Wendell Willkie’s path to the 1940 Republican nomination. That year,
three leading candidates – Robert Taft, Thomas Dewey and Arthur
Vandenberg – each arrived at the convention without enough delegates
to win.
Willkie - a businessman and former Democrat who had never before run
for public office - opposed the Republican Party’s isolationists and
was a supporter of Britain’s war efforts. His cause gained momentum
after the Nazi blitzkrieg in Europe in May 1940.
After six ballots at the convention, delegates in Pennsylvania, New
York and Michigan deserted other candidates and switched to Willkie,
giving him victory.
Trump, Cruz and Kasich could face the same scenario this year, which
would force to them to lobby delegates on the convention floor until
one emerged with a majority.
"A lot of people who do not want Trump have been sitting back to see
how Kasich and Rubio do in their home states on Tuesday,” said
Republican strategist Charlie Black, who signed up on Tuesday night
as a Kasich adviser.
(Editing by Jason Szep and Peter Cooney)
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