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 Instead, three days after Putin's March 14 declaration, the Yauza,
part of the "Syrian Express", the nickname given to the ships that
have kept Russian forces supplied, left the Russian Black Sea port
of Novorossiysk for Tartous, Russia's naval facility in Syria.
Whatever it was carrying was heavy; it sat so low in the water that
its load line was barely visible.
Its movements and those of other Russian ships in the two weeks
since Putin's announcement of a partial withdrawal suggest Moscow
has in fact shipped more equipment and supplies to Syria than it has
brought back in the same period, a Reuters analysis shows.
It is not known what the ships were carrying or how much equipment
has been flown out in giant cargo planes accompanying returning war
planes.
But the movements - while only a partial snapshot - suggest Russia
is working intensively to maintain its military infrastructure in
Syria and to supply the Syrian army so that it can scale up again
swiftly if need be.
Putin has not detailed what would prompt such a move, but any
perceived threat to Russia's bases in Syria or any sign that
President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow's closest Middle East ally, was in
peril would be likely to trigger a powerful return.
Russia operates an air base in Hmeymim and a naval facility at
Tartous. Putin has said Russia will keep both and that they will
need to be well protected.
"Since the main part of the force de facto stayed there, there is no
reason to reduce the traffic," said Mikhail Barabanov, a senior
research fellow at the Moscow-based CAST military think tank.
"Supplies for the Syrian army remain significant as well."
Moscow has not revealed the size of its force in Syria, nor has it
given details of its partial withdrawal.
Reuters has calculated that around half of Russia's fixed-wing
strike force based in Syria flew out of the country in the days
after the partial draw down was made public. The precise number of
planes Russia had was secret, but analysis suggested it had about 36
fixed-wing military jets there.
On Monday, state TV showed three heavy attack helicopters being
flown out of Syria along with some support staff.
NAVAL FIREPOWER
But an examination of shipping data, official information, tips from
maritime security sources and photographs from bloggers of Russian
ships passing the Bosphorus strait en route from the Black Sea to
the Mediterranean, shows no signs that the "Syrian Express" is being
wound down.
A Reuters analysis of the same data shows Russia is also likely to
have reinforced its naval force in the Mediterranean and now appears
to have more war ships near the Syrian coast than at the time of
Putin’s declaration.
 Their role is to protect cargo ships. Their presence also gives
Moscow the option of firing cruise missiles from the sea.
Russia appears to have more than a dozen military vessels in the
Mediterranean, including the Zeleniy Dol warship equipped with
terrain-hugging Kalibr cruise missiles which are accurate to within
three metres, according to Russian state media and the database of
Bosphorus Naval News, a Turkish online project.
Moscow is likely to maintain that strength, said CAST's Barabanov.
"Russia doesn't have too many ships that it can keep in the
Mediterranean. The role of the force was to ensure the activity of
the 'Syrian Express' and to demonstrate it to the West and, later,
to Turkey."
The Russian defense ministry did not reply to questions about what
the Russian navy was doing in the Mediterranean or whether there
were plans to reduce its presence.
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Russia's military ships and most auxiliary vessels are not shown in
publicly available databases. But most of its ships are seen and
photographed when they pass the Bosphorus on their way from Russia
to the Mediterranean or vice versa.
In most cases it is impossible to track military shipments to
destination ports however, meaning data is only partial.
LOW IN THE WATER
Since Moscow began to scale back in Syria, Russia has sent two
landing ships, which are typically used to transport troops and
armor - the Caesar Kunikov and the Saratov - to the Mediterranean
along with the Yauza, an auxiliary cargo vessel.
The Saratov looked loaded when it passed the strait on Thursday
going south toward Syria. Its load line was visibly lower than on
March 14 when it was photographed going the other way, toward
Russia.
At the same time, two warships - the Alexander Otrakovsky and the
Minsk - and the Dvinitsa-50, an auxiliary vessel, were photographed
by Turkish bloggers passing the Bosphorus en route back to Russia.
At least two of the returning ships, the Alexander Otrakovsky and
the Dvinitsa-50, looked unloaded on their way back.
Photographs show that the Otrakovsky, a large landing ship, sat
higher in the water on its return to Russia compared to March 2 when
it crossed the strait in the other direction. It was not clear if it
carried troops or equipment.
The load line of the Dvinitsa-50 was also high above the water when
it was photographed in the Bosphorus on March 20 on its way back to
Russia.
It seems unlikely that Russian troops or equipment were on board any
of the returning ships. None of them looked like they had heavy
cargo onboard.
The Minsk has already headed back toward Syria. On Tuesday, it was
photographed passing the Bosphorus. Its bow sat deep in the water;
its cargo could not be discerned.
Non-military cargo traffic between Russia and Syria also shows no
signs of flagging.
Four cargo ships involved in the supply operation called at Syria in
the two weeks before Putin announced the draw down.
A fifth, the Alexander Tkachenko, a Russian ferry, previously
photographed with military trucks onboard, probably called there
too.
Reuters shipping database showed it was approaching Syria, but then
suddenly disappeared for a few days before re-appearing en route
back to Russia, meaning its transponders were not switched on for
that period.
Five cargo ships, including an oil tanker, arrived in Syria in the
two weeks following Putin's announcement.
(Additional reporting by Jonathan Saul; Editing by Andrew Osborn and
Janet McBride)
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