|
 To some, the prospect of a contested convention suggests the party
elite will ride roughshod over the voters. But the emergence of
state-by-state primaries and caucuses that let voters play a
deciding role is a modern construct.
In 1952 Adlai Stevenson won the Democratic nomination without taking
part in any primaries. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey became the
Democratic nominee without participating in any primaries. At the
heart of changes in both the Republican and Democratic parties since
then is a desire to select a nominee who is likely to win in the
general election. Following is a guide to how the nomination process
has evolved.
Q: How did the nomination process evolve?
A: Political parties began to form early in the country's existence,
and party-based caucuses had developed by 1800. Caucuses in the 19th
century were gatherings of the members of Congress of the various
parties, and they picked the nominees.
 Q: How did we get from nominees chosen by member of Congress to
nominating contests decided by registered voters?
A: Over time the caucuses were criticized as failing to uphold the
U.S. Constitution's separation of powers because they made the
selection of the president dependent on members of Congress. The
election of 1812 brought that conflict to the fore because President
James Madison was pressured by members of Congress to declare war on
Great Britain if he wanted to be nominated for a second term.
Q: How did that wind up changing things?
A: The catalyst for change came in 1824 when the caucus process
resulted in no candidate winning a majority of the votes in the
Electoral College, a body of members selected by each state
legislature to vote for president. The election ended up in the
House of Representatives, which chose Secretary of State John Quincy
Adams as president, even though Senator Andrew Jackson led both in
the popular vote and in the Electoral College. That led to the
two-party system, which has since dominated American politics, and
to the nominating conventions.
Q: How were delegates to the conventions selected?
A: Throughout the 19th century, the process was controlled by party
insiders, who chose the delegates to the conventions. Those
delegates voted for candidates in line with the wishes of party
bosses. By the late 19th century there was a call to give individual
voters a voice, and in the early 20th century some states began to
hold primary elections to choose delegates for party nominating
conventions.
The big change came in 1912 with the formation of the Progressive
Party, also known as the Bull Moose Party, by former President
Theodore Roosevelt and his supporters after Roosevelt failed to win
the Republican nomination for a third term even though he won nine
out of 10 primary elections held. The rest of the delegates at the
party's convention had been selected by party bosses, and they voted
for William Howard Taft as the Republican nominee.
 The Progressive Party declared itself dedicated to upholding the
principles of "government of the people, by the people and for the
people," and it called for primary elections for party nominations,
saying there should be "Nation-wide preferential primaries for
candidates for the Presidency."
Q: Were those primaries the same as today's nominating contests?
A: Not really. As the 20th century progressed, more and more states
began to hold primary elections to give citizens a voice. But
primaries or caucuses weren't held in all states and voters still
didn't control the nominating process. Primaries became a sort of
bellwether, sending a message to the party leaders, who controlled
most of the delegates, as to whether a candidate would be viable in
the general election. In 1960, when John Kennedy became the
Democratic nominee, his victory in the West Virginia primary was
seen as a strong sign that a Catholic could win the votes of
Protestants.
Q: So even in the 1960s it doesn't sound like primaries decided who
the candidates would be. What changed?
A: Let's look at the Republican and Democratic parties separately,
because the parties set the rules for choosing delegates for their
nominating conventions.
The Democrats have tinkered with their delegate selection system in
response to almost every election since 1968, as they struggled with
the push-and-pull of who should pick the Democratic nominee: the
party insiders who believe they know who can ultimately win the
presidential election or the voters themselves.
[to top of second column] |
Here's the short-form history of what the Democrats have done:
The 1968 election, when Hubert Humphrey, who eschewed the primaries
in favor of courting officials who controlled the delegates, lost to
Republican nominee Richard Nixon, led to reforms that essentially
gave control of the nominating process to the popular vote. A number
of states decided the easiest way to comply with the new rules would
be to hold primaries.
The 1972 election, when Democratic Senator George McGovern lost in a
landslide to Nixon, spawned a sort of backlash, with a call to
return some control over the nominating process to people who were
expected to be party regulars and who would care more about party
interests. State parties would be allowed to name up to 25 percent
of a state's delegates - a class now called "superdelegates."
The 1980 election, when President Jimmy Carter - who had battled
Senator Ted Kennedy for the Democratic nomination - lost to Ronald
Reagan, raised a call for more control by party leaders and public
officials over the nominating process. The Democratic Party would
now allow states to create winner-take-all processes for districts
and mandate the election of unpledged party leaders and elected
officials - the superdelegates.
Those winner-take-all districts and the superdelegates became key to
the selection of Walter Mondale as the Democratic nominee in 1984.
He lost to Reagan.
In 1988 the Democrats banned winner-take-all districts and said a
candidate would have to win at least 15 percent of the popular vote
to be awarded any delegates. Those rules still hold, though the
number of superdelegates has grown. In 2008 superdelegates accounted
for more than 18 percent of the total, and they ended up being the
key deciders after neither of the top two Democratic contenders -
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton - won a majority of the pledged
delegates.
Q: Is that similar to the Republican situation?
A: In a way, yes. The Republican Party does not have any
superdelegates, but if no candidate wins a majority of the delegates
prior to the July convention the delegates become free to change
their votes, making them the deciders.
Q: Has the Republican Party engaged in the kind of changes the
Democrats have?
A: No. The Republicans have given the states a lot of leeway in
setting the rules for their primaries and caucuses. States can
choose whether to award delegates proportionate to the popular vote,
via a winner-take-all method or a combination of the two. The
Republican Party in 2010 did say that states had to use proportional
allocation for a certain period early in the season of nominating
contests. That period was changed for the current election year to
just the first two weeks of March.
Q: So what happens if the Republicans end up with a brokered
convention?
A: A brokered convention would occur if no candidate has won a
majority of the delegates ahead of the convention. (The magic number
this year is 1,237 delegates.) At the convention, the delegates must
initially vote according to the outcome of the popular vote from
each state. But if no candidate has a majority of the delegates,
that first ballot will be inconclusive. So the next step is the
brokered convention, when the delegates are no longer bound by the
outcome of the popular vote and can vote according to their own
wishes. The vote is taken as many times as necessary until one
candidate clears a majority of the delegates - something that occurs
with a lot of dealmaking on the sidelines.
(Reporting by Leslie Adler)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
