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 Musk says he is "hell-bent" on making the Silicon Valley automotive
upstart a manufacturing powerhouse, but his vision relies on finding
veteran auto engineers to ramp up volume ten-fold in four years - a
challenge even for established carmakers.
Tesla on Wednesday said it would build 500,000 cars in 2018, two
years ahead of schedule, and close to 1 million by 2020. The same
day Tesla said its vice presidents in charge of production and
manufacturing were leaving.
"You're looking at a company with significant levels of management
turnover at the highest ends, people without experience in the
planning, design or build of vehicles, and you expect to crank it up
at those kinds of volumes?" asked Michigan-based auto manufacturing
consultant Michael Tracy.
Putting aside the issue of capital requirements, auto experts point
to a shortage of manufacturing engineers, whose ranks were thinning
out even before the U.S. auto crisis hit in 2008.
"It’s a constant issue we have in this country," said Garth
Motschenbacher, director of employer relations at Michigan State
University's College of Engineering.
"For the longest time manufacturing was seen as the dirty end of
engineering," he said.
At the same time, Alphabet's Google and Apple are working on car
programs and courting the same potential employees. So are
established auto names like Ford Motor Co, General Motors Co and
Toyota Motor Corp.
A 2015 Deloitte report found it takes three months to hire skilled
engineers, and the shortage is crimping manufacturers.
Robust early reservations for the upcoming Model 3 mass-market car
may have assured Musk of demand, but now comes the execution, said
automotive recruiter Stephen Parkford.
"It's like reservations for a restaurant that's not open yet. You
got the menu, but you don't have a chef!" he said.
Hiring a highly proven production engineer from a traditional
carmaker who arrived with his entire team could speed the process,
Parkford said.
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But while young engineers will jump at the chance to work for Tesla,
the "by-the-numbers, disciplined manufacturing guys" with 15-20
years experience will be harder to nab, said Cuneyt Oge, president
of the Society of Automotive Engineers. One key obstacle is the high
price of living in Silicon Valley.
Musk needs a visionary auto industry veteran, Oge said. "But anyone
with that kind of experience is going to say, 'Hey, Elon, you can't
do this in two years.'"
Tesla is known for pushing the envelope on design and technology but
has stumbled in manufacturing, with prior launches marked by delays
and quality issues.
Traditional automakers have more human and financial resources than
cash-burning Tesla: Tracy pointed to Nissan Motor Co Ltd's ability
in 2004 to bring in 200 engineers from Japan to help fix quality
issues at its recently opened assembly plant in Canton, Mississippi.
"Greybeards" are crucial to build and run factory systems, said Oge.
"You can't just defy the laws of business physics which require you
to go down a learning curve collectively to build that systems
know-how," he said.
While Tesla employees may cite Musk's tirelessness and attention to
detail, even bedding down inside his Fremont, California factory,
others like consultant Tracy see a worrying sign.
"If Elon is sleeping in a sleeping bag in a conference room off of
the final assembly line, then there's an awful lot happening in that
factory that's wrong," Tracy said.
(Reporting By Alexandria Sage; Editing by Tom Brown)
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