Nerves dominate before U.S. retail numbers

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[May 13, 2016]  By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar was set for a second week of gains on Friday while stock markets fell ahead of a handful of major U.S. and Chinese data releases which may do little to settle growing nerves over the outlook for the world's two biggest economies.

Wall Street was set to open lower after another big drop in Apple shares on Thursday spilled over into weakness for other major stock markets.

European shares drew some strength from solid economic growth numbers from Germany and other euro zone economies, but overall were still a touch down on the day.

Doubts over growth in Europe, the financial stability of China and the U.S. Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates have dominated the past month and U.S. retail sales and Chinese releases over the next 24 hours will be important new pieces of the picture.

The dollar - whose strength over the past three years is broadly a reflection of how the United States is outpacing its peers - hit a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Friday, posting its best fortnightly performance since February.

That still looks more about the weakness of other growth-dependent currencies rather than dollar strength per se and the yen - the chief refuge for investors in times of stress - was higher against the greenback.

"Optimism from earlier this year that policy stimulus in China would provide more support for economic growth in Asia appears to be fading," said Lee Hardman, a currency analyst with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.

"In these circumstances, commodity-related and emerging market currencies are coming back under downward pressure."

Oil prices, whose slow recovery has been a help to sentiment since January, were down 1 percent.

Data at the end of the Chinese trading day showed banks extended just 555.6 billion yuan ($85.22 billion) in net new yuan loans in April, well below analysts' expectations and less than half the 1,370 billion yuan reported in March.

While growth in Germany doubled, Berlin's economy ministry warned it would slow in the second quarter and economists said weaker exports to slowing emerging markets like China would eventually begin to tell on demand.
 

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After a poor first quarter and another set of weaker jobs numbers last week there are also more doubts over how robust the U.S. economy will be going forward.

Two Fed policymakers - Eric Rosengren and Esther George - both sounded optimistic on Thursday on the chances of raising interest rates later this year. But U.S. interest rate markets do not seem to believe them: pricing shows the chances of rates being unmoved by the end of this year have risen to more than 40 percent.

Still, both are voters on the U.S. central bank's policy committee this year and the comments by Boston Fed President Rosengren, in the past a supporter of keeping rates low for longer, point to the growing pressure within the bank for a hike this year.

"What we’re seeing is the Fed just trying to maintain some flexibility - it doesn't want the market to decide policy for it, so it wants to keep its options open," said Neil Mellor, a strategist with BNY Mellon in London.

(Editing by Ralph Boulton)

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