Al Qaeda's Syrian branch, the Nusra Front, was excluded from a
ceasefire put in place in February and from peace talks that
followed. The talks broke up last month, with Assad's government and
foes blaming each other for military escalation.
After lying low in the early days of the truce, Nusra has re-emerged
on the battlefield as the diplomacy has unraveled, spearheading
recent attacks on pro-government Iranian militias near Aleppo, Nusra
commanders and other rebels say.
In the latest expansion of its profile, it and other groups have
revived the Jaish al-Fatah, or the army of conquest, a military
alliance of disparate Islamist rebel groups that won big victories
against government forces last year.
Nusra's resurgence could undermine the Western-backed rebel groups
that signed up to the truce and attended the peace talks, and gives
Assad's government and its Russian and Iranian backers more reasons
to press on with a war during which they have hit insurgents of all
stripes.
"Jaish al-Fatah has returned, but this time in strength, and our
goal is to spread to the major fronts in Syria," said Abu Shaimaa, a
Nusra Front commander, speaking to Reuters from rebel-held Idlib
province, of the revival of the Islamist rebel alliance.
"We ask God that with Jaish al-Fatah's return, the victories will
also return," added Zaher Abu Hassan, head of a Jaish al-Fatah media
organization in Idlib.
The Islamist rebels still face the challenge of overcoming their own
rivalries. One senior insurgent source said that while Jaish
al-Fatah had made a comeback in one area, talks were still underway
to relaunch the alliance more widely.
"In southern Aleppo, yes there is an operations room, but the goal
is (to repeat it) on all the active fronts," he said.
RECRUITMENT DRIVE
The insurgency against Assad is a patchwork of factions ranging from
groups linked to al Qaeda or inspired by it, to those with a
nationalist agenda that fight under the banner of the Free Syrian
Army. Some of these groups have received military aid from the
United States, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
The Islamic State group, which broke away from al Qaeda, is in
conflict with both other insurgent groups and Damascus as it fights
for its self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq. It has lost
territory in recent months but still controls much of eastern and
northern Syria.
Last year the Islamist rebel factions that formed Jaish al-Fatah put
aside rivalries to drive the Syrian government out of Idlib province
before thrusting into the areas near the coastal mountains that form
the heartland of Assad's Alawite sect. That advance helped prompt
Russia's decision to send its air force to bomb on behalf of Assad,
tipping the war his way with the help of Iranian reinforcements on
the ground.
Rebel sources gave differing accounts on how far the groups in Jaish
al-Fatah had gone toward reviving the alliance, particularly on the
extent of the involvement of Ahrar al-Sham, a powerful group widely
believed to be backed by Turkey.
Ahrar al-Sham, an important component of the alliance last year, had
backed the political track but has steadily distanced itself from
U.N.-led diplomacy that failed to secure a full halt to air strikes,
adequate aid deliveries, or a prisoner release.
Ahrar al-Sham and the Nusra Front, both powerful in northwestern
Syria, joined forces in an attack that resulted in the capture of a
government-held Alawite town in Hama province on May 13, though not
operating under the Jaish al-Fatah banner.
The May 6 capture of another town, Khan Touman south of Aleppo, from
pro-government Shi'ite militias including Iranians was openly
attributed to Jaish al-Fatah, with rebels identifying Nusra and
another group, Jund al-Aqsa, as the leading forces.
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Insurgent sources said Nusra Front and its allies had deployed to
southern Aleppo from nearby Idlib, one of their strongholds, to
stave off attempted government advances that threatened to splinter
rebel-held areas in two.
Hardline Sunni Islamist Sheikh Abdullah al-Mohaisany, a Saudi
national, has meanwhile been on a new recruitment drive in Idlib. At
one rally, captured in a video posted on YouTube, he urges all males
over the age of 15 to join the jihad.
A resident of the area where the rally was held said around 300
youths had volunteered that day, and they would be funneled into
Jaish al-Fatah factions.
Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has also weighed in on Syria in a
voice message, lambasting the political process and urging jihadists
to unite. His remarks were interpreted as a directive for the group
to focus more of its attention on Syria.
"A DANGEROUS INDICATOR"
FSA groups that played a prominent role in the diplomatic process
launched this year with U.S. and Russian blessing say they still
have the upper hand over Nusra in important areas, notably the city
of Aleppo itself, and areas of southern Syria near the border with
Jordan.
FSA groups have been battling Islamic State at the Turkish border in
recent weeks, while also fending off three government offensives
just north of Aleppo, said Zakaria Malahefji, politburo chief of one
such group, Fastaqim.
They say they will not return to peace talks until the situation
improves on the ground. Reflecting the dim prospects for diplomacy,
no date for talks emerged from an international meeting on Tuesday.
Another FSA commander said the prominent role played by the Nusra
Front in recent battles was "a dangerous indicator" of where the war
was headed if diplomacy failed completely.
The commander, a senior opposition official speaking on condition of
anonymity, said Nusra had seized the moment to demonstrate its value
to the insurgency and the futility of diplomacy.
"There is talk about the restructuring of Jaish al-Fatah,
particularly after the victory in Khan Touman," he said. "The lack
of a political horizon and aid, or anything that brings relief to
the people, raises the chances of the formation of Jaish al-Fatah
and the alliance with Nusra."
Noah Bonsey, a senior analyst with International Crisis Group, said
the re-emergence of Jaish al-Fatah was an indicator of the political
climate in the opposition and its realization that the cessation of
hostilities was not sustainable.
The resumption of fighting was good for Nusra, he added: "This is
giving them credibility, whereas the cessation appeared to be
diminishing their credibility and highlighting real rifts between
Nusra and the rest of the rebellion."
Much of the opposition believed "that the regime and the Iran-backed
militias were able to benefit from it, and that they need to join
Nusra in reasserting offensive pressure", he said.
(Writing by Tom Perry; editing by Peter Graff)
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