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 The real estate developer, who is very close to securing the
Republican nomination for November’s presidential election, has with
undiplomatic abandon challenged much of the status quo in U.S.-Asia
relations. Overall, his comments have sounded like a death knell for
the "pivot to Asia" strategy adopted by President Barack Obama five
years ago.
He has said U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea should pay more
toward their defense, warned he could withdraw U.S. troops from
bases in Japan, and mulled whether Japan and South Korea should have
their own nuclear arms. This week he told Reuters he is willing to
talk to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which would represent a
major shift in U.S. policy.
He has also threatened to rein in China’s big trade surplus with the
U.S., saying he will threaten to impose heavy duties on Chinese
goods. And Trump says he will rip up and then renegotiate the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade pact agreed to by the U.S.,
Japan, and 10 other countries in February.
Furthermore, Trump’s call for a ban on Muslims entering the United
States risks undermining moderate leaders in Muslim countries like
Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh.
 "If he becomes president and adopts his own version of foreign
policy, the U.S. will cease to be a Pacific power. That’s the end
result," said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat, who
served in both Beijing and Baghdad.
"It’s not that we would adopt ‘Japan First’, but if the U.S. leaves,
there will be a vacuum and … China will try to fill it," said
Miyake, research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies.
"It’s a survival issue for all allies of the United States."
Trump could, of course, lose the election to the likely Democratic
candidate, Hillary Clinton, who is well known by many Asia
policymakers.
And if he is elected he could act a lot differently in office. But
Asian diplomats and policy advisors say that initial impressions
count.
His idea of making Japan and South Korea pay up rather than enjoy a
cheaper ride under the U.S. security umbrella sent shudders through
Tokyo and Seoul.
And his comments about the possibility of a local nuclear deterrent
fanned fears among Asian diplomats that the world could become an
even more dangerous place.
"It is here that Trump is most scary," Lalit Mansingh, a former
Indian ambassador to Washington, told Reuters in New Delhi, though
he also noted it may be "just election rhetoric".
Japan's nationalist-led government has already boosted defense
spending and has reinterpreted its pacifist constitution to allow
its military to come to the aid of allies under attack even if Japan
itself if not attacked, a major shift in Japan's post-war security
stance.
"His position is causing anxiety, especially in East Asia," said a
senior lawmaker in Japan's ruling coalition. "It is really hard to
comprehend because conservatives have supported a stronger military
presence and more engagement.”
FLASHPOINT
Mansingh said he expects China to test the foreign policy resolve of
whoever occupies the White House next, and the South China Sea looms
as one of the most likely flashpoints.
 Tensions over China's land-building and installations on islets in
the disputed waters flared on Tuesday, when two Chinese warplanes
carried out, what the Pentagon called, an "unsafe" intercept of a
U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft.
"They're building a massive fortress in the South China Sea. They're
not supposed to be doing that," Trump told Reuters, without saying
what he would do about it.
At least, according to Mansingh, China's leaders and Trump shared
the mentality of dealmakers, which could help settle diplomatic
wrangles before they get out of hand.
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Jia Qingguo, an advisor to China's government on foreign affairs,
said Trump sounds like an "isolationist" who doesn't want the United
States to become too active internationally.
"So, he doesn’t sound that aggressive," said Jia, the dean of the
School of International Relations at China’s elite Peking
University. "Chinese tend to think that too much so-called
internationalism on the part of the U.S. is not that good."
A senior Japanese government official said Washington could lose
influence in Asia if there was any perception it was softening its
stance on issues like the South China Sea.
"And it would be very difficult to get it back," he warned.
Mansingh says those fears are overblown as the United States
self-interest lay in protecting access to the Pacific and Indian
Oceans.
"What would American withdrawal mean, does it want to hand over the
affairs of the world to China? Would that serve anybody’s interest?
I don’t think so."
DEALBREAKER
There are also fears that the TPP could unravel, or become worth a
lot less to Asian partners, should Trump renegotiate the pact, as he
has said he wants to do.
The deal has yet to be ratified, but U.S. President Barack Obama has
warned that delay could allow China to steal a march through its own
proposed regional trade deal with 15 other nations.
“I think it's hard to imagine that TPP would survive a Trump
presidency," said a top trade official in a major country in the
region, who declined to be more closely identified.
"‘Less intervention’ would be a small benefit compared to the
massive damage to the world from a USA that becomes more
isolationist and more crassly commercial under Trump," he said.
The lack of priority Trump appears to give to issues that don't
serve his "America first" agenda could mean he'll soft-pedal on
human rights and democratic values, some critics said. That would
come at a time when generals are running Thailand, a ‘strong man’
has just been elected the new president of the Philippines, and
Malaysia's prime minister has silenced independent media.
"Let's hope that someone on his team realizes that respect for human
rights must be a core U.S. foreign policy value, and not just a
reality show line," said Phil Robertson, deputy director for Human
Rights Watch's Asia division.
On the other hand, Panitan Wattanayagorn, an advisor to Thailand's
Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwon expressed confidence that Trump
wouldn't apply pressure to countries like his.
"All in all, if Trump arrives, the chances of stronger ties will be
good because he would want allies," said Panitan.
(Reporting by Linda Sieg and Tim Kelly in TOKYO, Michael Martina in
BEIJING, Rajesh Kumar Singh in NEW DELHI, Jack Kim in SEOUL, John
Chalmers in JAKARTA and Pracha Hariraksapitak and Simon Webb in
BANGKOK; Writing by Simon Cameron-Moore; Editing by Martin Howell)
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