Moody's Analytics election model predicts
Clinton win
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[November 02, 2016]
(Reuters) - Low gas prices and
President Barack Obama's high approval ratings are key factors that
favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House in next week's
election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has
accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests.
Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206
for Republican Donald Trump, Moody's Analytics predicted on Tuesday in
the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would
match Obama's margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney
in 2012.
The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton
win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral
votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be
elected president.
The Moody's Analytics model is based on a combination of state-level
economic conditions and political history, and has correctly called the
outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan
unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.
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Rather than focus on the individual candidates in a race, the model
instead centers on whether current economic and political conditions
favor the incumbent party in the White House. This year those factors
point to Clinton becoming the 45th U.S. president.
The economic factors Moody's measures include the two-year percentage
changes in real personal income per household, as well as house and
gasoline prices.
Among the political factors weighed, Moody's said the most important is
the share of the vote in any one state that went to the incumbent party
in the previous election. It also takes into account voter fatigue and
the incumbent president's approval ratings.
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![](../images/110216PICS/news_w39.jpg)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton attends a campaign
rally accompanied by vice presidential nominee Senator Tim Kaine
(not pictured) in Pittsburgh, U.S., October 22, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos
Barria/File Photo
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This year, with Obama enjoying some of his highest job approval
ratings since his first year in office in 2009 and gasoline prices
holding steady at well-below-average levels, the model suggests the
Democrats will win their third straight presidential election,
Moody's said. That would mark the first time since the 1988 election
of Republican George H.W. Bush that one party has won three
consecutive presidential contests.
Moody's warns, however, that its model does not take into account
any individual characteristics of specific candidates.
"Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is
very possible that voters will react to changing economic and
political conditions differently than they have in past election
cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly
state-by-state projections," Moody's analytics economist Dan White
wrote in the report.
(Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
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