Betting sites see record wagering on U.S.
presidential election
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[November 07, 2016]
By Amy Tennery
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The raucous,
passionate and unpredictable 2016 U.S. presidential election is on track
to notch another distinction: the most wagered-upon political event
ever.
With many opinion polls showing a tight race just one day before
Tuesday's election, record numbers of bettors are pouring millions into
online platforms from Ireland to Iowa in the hope of capturing a
financial windfall from a victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton or
Republican Donald Trump.
UK-based internet betting exchange Betfair said on Sunday its "Next
President" market was set to become the most traded it had ever seen and
expected to surpass even Brexit, the contentious UK referendum to leave
the European Union.
By Sunday, roughly $130 million had been traded on who will become the
next U.S. president, compared with $159 million on the Brexit
referendum, Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten said. The amount bet so far
on the 2016 contest dwarfs the roughly $50 million laid on the 2012
race.
"We think it is because (of) how raw the Brexit (vote) is in people's
minds - they're not convinced yet that it's a done deal," Totten said.
Most polls leading into Britain's June 23 referendum predicted Britons
would choose to remain in the EU. Instead, they voted to leave by a 52
percent to 48 percent margin.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Nov/07/images/ads/current/fcs_funeral_lda082613.png)
Betfair's "Next President" market was by far the largest of more than 70
markets on the site related to the U.S. election. As of Friday, some
$140 million has been put into play on markets ranging from who will win
the popular vote to how many states each party will carry.
On Ireland's Paddy Power, which merged with Betfair earlier this year,
the U.S. presidential election "is definitely on course to be the
biggest political event," said spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire. The site
has had about $4.38 million bet on the race so far.
For Paddy Power, sporting events remain the site's "bread and butter,"
with politics more of a "niche market," Mac An Iomaire said.
Nonetheless, he expects the 2016 race to be among the top 10-most-traded
events on the site.
Even people with no knowledge of politics know who Trump is, said Mac An
Iomaire said, explaining the runaway popularity of the U.S. election in
betting markets. "Trump is such a huge celebrity."
Ladbrokes, a UK-based gambling company, said about 5 million pounds, or
a little over $6 million, had been bet on the 2016 presidential election
since its markets on the race opened four years ago. A Ladbrokes
spokesman said that amount was "at least double" the amount wagered on
the 2012 election.
The three sites all reported an 83 percent probability of a Clinton
victory on Tuesday. Her probability shot up a few percentage points on
Sunday after the FBI stood by its earlier recommendation that no
criminal charges were warranted against Clinton in her use of a private
email server.
BACK IN THE USA
The vast majority of big-dollar political betting occurs outside
America. Wagering on elections in the United States is limited by law to
relatively small trading platforms connected to universities, which use
data from the markets for academic research.
Still, the sites are abuzz with activity as the election nears, albeit
in small amounts.
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![](../images/110716pics/news_o23.jpg)
U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (R)
speak at campaign rallies in Westbury, New York, U.S., September 26,
2016 and Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 21, 2016 in a combination of
file photos. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/Jonathan Ernst/Files
![](../images/ads/current/richardson_lda_090916.png)
On PredictIt, launched in 2014 and jointly run by Victoria
University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C.-based
political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc, the five
most-active markets all related to the presidential election.
PredictIt is not legally permitted to disclose the amount of money
traded, but its top three markets have all reached the maximum
number of participants.
Trading on the older Iowa Electronic Markets, launched by the
University of Iowa in 1988, has also been brisk, although a
spokeswoman said she could not say if 2016 was seeing substantially
more volume than in 2012, when President Barack Obama won
re-election against Republican Mitt Romney.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with a 5 percentage
point lead over Trump in the national survey - 44 percent to 39
percent - while races in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina
had shifted from Clinton's control to being too close to call.
The PredictIt market gave Clinton an 81 percent probability of
winning the White House. IEM's "Winner Takes All" market showed her
with a 71 percent chance .
'SHE WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE'
Betfair said on Friday that Trump was emerging as the clear favorite
among one group of players in particular - Brexit backers.
Two-thirds of its customers who had supported a Brexit outcome were
also backing Trump on Betfair.
Paul Krishnamurty, a professional gambler for 15 years who works as
an analyst at Betfair and a columnist at Politico, is not one of
them. He told Reuters he stood to lose $28,000 if Trump wins on
Tuesday.
Krishnamurty, who said he had earned roughly half a million dollars
during his betting career, has laid money on several
election-related markets this year. He took a winning position on
Trump's selection of Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his running mate
and bet against Jeb Bush during the Republican nominating contests.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Nov/07/images/ads/current/brickey_lda_061314.png)
He said he believed Clinton would likely to win both North Carolina
and Florida and that a Trump victory was unlikely.
"I personally believe she will win in a landslide," Krishnamurty
said.
(Reporting by Amy Tennery; Editing by Dan Burns and and Peter
Cooney)
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