Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning:
Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
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[November 08, 2016]
By Maurice Tamman
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With hours to go
before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent
chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White
House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by
Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of
white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to
the survey released on Monday.
The former secretary of state was leading Trump by about 45 percent to
42 percent in the popular vote, and was on track to win 303 votes in the
Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory,
the survey found.
Trump's chances rest with his performance in Florida, Michigan, North
Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling
ended, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three
percentage points. For Trump to win, he will have to take most of those
states.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Nov/08/images/ads/current/burtonview_coop_sda_daily_farm_2016.png)
Any combination of two losses in the three states of Florida, Michigan
and Pennsylvania would almost assuredly result in a Clinton victory. At
the same time, Trump must hold onto the traditionally Republican state
of Arizona, where the race has drawn close, and hope that independent
candidate Evan McMullin does not claim another Republican bastion, Utah.
To win, Trump needs higher turnout among Republican white voters than
that which materialized in 2012, a drop-off in ballots by
African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted increase in
Hispanic voters, the project showed.
CLUES TO THE OUTCOME
North Carolina, one of the first states to report results on Tuesday
night, might provide clues to the outcome. If Clinton wins the state, it
probably means African Americans are turning out to vote at a similar
rate to 2012, when President Barack Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney by
four points nationally. Romney won North Carolina by two points.
The States of the Nation poll found that early votes have been cast
evenly between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina. Trump enjoyed a slim
one-point advantage among all likely voters, 47 percent to Clinton’s 46.
He had a 30 percentage point lead among white voters, while Clinton led
by about 85 points among black voters.
Florida, with its 29 electoral college votes, is crucial to Trump. If
Clinton wins Florida, she just needs to win one of the three big swing
states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania while Trump would have to win
all three. If he wins Florida, Trump still must win both Ohio and
Michigan or hope for an upset in Pennsylvania.
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![](../images/110816pics/news_m17.jpg)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reacts with U.S.
President Barack Obama before speaking during a campaign event for
in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. November 7, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos
Barria
![](../images/ads/current/richardson_lda_090916.png)
According to the project, Clinton enjoys the tiniest of leads in
Florida, 48 percent to 47. Clinton leads Trump by 75 points among
black voters and has about a 20 point lead among Hispanics. But
Trump enjoys a 30 point lead among likely white voters. Clinton’s
success in Florida depends on heavy turnout among black voters.
Without it, the race becomes razor-thin, even with a large increase
in Hispanic ballots.
Michigan and Ohio were too close to call on Sunday, according to the
project. Clinton’s support is more solid in Pennsylvania. Still, a
surge of white Republican voters combined with a drop in turnout
among black Democrats could be enough to tilt Ohio and Michigan to
Trump and put Pennsylvania in play.
If Trump remains in contention on Tuesday night after the eastern
swing states have been decided, eyes will turn to Arizona. Trump led
Clinton by five points on Sunday, but Arizona had moved steadily
toward Clinton in recent weeks, according to the project. It is also
a state where higher Hispanic turnout could tip the result in
Clinton’s favor.
If Trump is in a position to win after Arizona, he could still be
tripped up by Utah, where McMullin has remained a contender to the
end.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Nov/08/images/ads/current/more_news_bch_121715.png)
Opinion polls have Trump up by five points or more in Utah. A
McMullin upset could set up a low-probability scenario where neither
Clinton or Trump reaches the 270 Electoral College votes needed to
win. The election would then be decided by the Republican-controlled
U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers would have a
three-way choice among Trump, Clinton and McMullin, a Utah native
and former CIA operative.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people
every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C. State by state
results are available by visiting
http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
(Editing by Michael Williams and Howard Goller)
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