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 "A very short one," she replied.
But Calment lived two more years, dying at age 122 with the longest
documented lifespan of any person in history. Scientists who
examined statistical trends regarding maximum lifespans said on
Wednesday Calment's record may last a long time.
An analysis of mortality and population data covering about 40
countries indicated humankind may already have hit its longevity
ceiling, they said.
Average life expectancy continues to increase and more people are
reaching extreme old age. But, the researchers said, people who
reach 110 today have no greater life expectancy than those who lived
to 110 in the 1970s. The age at death of the world's oldest person
has not increased since Calment died in 1997.
The trend since then has been for the world's oldest person to reach
around age 115, and the researchers predicted this would remain
stable for the foreseeable future.
"It is possible that someone might live slightly longer, but the
odds of anybody in the world surviving to 125 in any given year is
less than one in 10,000," said molecular geneticist Brandon
Milholland of Albert Einstein College of Medicine, who helped lead
the study published in the journal Nature.
"Despite any gains in the average life expectancy, there is a limit
beyond which the maximum lifespan of humans cannot be extended,"
Milholland added.
Since the 19th century, life expectancy increases have been driven
by factors including vaccines, antibiotics, improved treatments for
cancer and heart disease, and better sanitation and nutrition.
Infant and child mortality has fallen worldwide and life
expectancies in developed countries now reach into the 70s and 80s.
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"We suspect that the accumulation of damage with age, especially
mutations in the individual cells of the body, somatic mutations,
ultimately places a limit on lifespan," Milholland said.
Medical research generally focuses on individual diseases, which
does not extend maximum lifespan because lifespan-limiting damage
affects all organs, Milholland said. So, for example, a treatment
improving cardiac function would not prevent neurodegeneration.
"The odds are very slim that we will ever see a person who lives
longer than Jeanne Calment," Milholland said. "And if we do ... they
would probably not exceed her record by very much."
Italian woman Emma Morano, 116, is recognized as the world's oldest
living person.
(Reporting by Will Dunham; Editing by Sandra Maler)
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