A Trump victory would 'upset the verdict
of history': Allan Lichtman
Send a link to a friend
[October 06, 2016]
(Reuters) - The forces influencing
the U.S. presidential election favor Republican nominee Donald Trump to
win the popular vote - but even proven prediction models face "the most
difficult election by far to predict accurately," a political forecaster
with a three-decade winning streak said on Wednesday.
History Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington
has accurately predicted the popular result in presidential elections
since Republican President Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic challenger
Walter Mondale in 1984.
Although the number of ballots cast by voters for each candidate counts,
it does not ultimately determine who takes the White House. In a process
known as the Electoral College, the candidate who wins a majority of 538
electoral votes is the victor. Each state and the District of Columbia
is allocated a certain number of those votes, and the candidates have to
amass them state-by-state on Election Day.
While Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" analysis predicts a popular
victory by Trump, some other models, such as FiveThirtyEight's and The
New York Times', have given Democratic rival Hillary Clinton a large
probability of victory.
Lichtman joined Reuters Global Markets Forum to discuss his take on
Campaign 2016. What follows are excerpts from that conversation.
Question: Why is Trump your favorite to win?
Answer: With respect to my prediction, my "Keys" system is based on 13
true/false questions where an answer of "true" favors re-election of the
White House party - the Democrats. They have exactly six "false" keys
against them, just enough to predict their defeat.
However, I also noted that Donald Trump is such a dangerously
precedent-breaking candidate that he could upset the verdict of history
and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The two candidates have been repeatedly fact-checked by independent
sources, and his lies vastly outnumber hers.
Q: How big is the immigration issue in deciding the election?
[to top of second column] |
Republican presidential
nominee Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Henderson, Nevada
October 5, 2016. REUTERS/David Becker
A: I think immigration is a very important issue. America is a
nation of immigrants and immigrants have been demeaned for more than
two centuries, the French, the Irish, the Jews, the Asians, the
Mexicans, and now the Muslims. The two candidates have fundamentally
different approaches to dealing with the issue.
Q: What is your expectation for the next two debates?
A: Trump has got to convince voters that he has the temperament,
knowledge, and background to be a dependable and effective leader.
He can try to do that without losing his base, which will never
abandon him.
The first debate was definitely a lost opportunity (for Trump),
which may be hard to regain for him. Obama lost the first debate
(against Mitt Romney) in 2012, but voters still did not have as many
doubts about him as they do about Trump. In terms of temperament, he
could take a lesson from Pence, but Trump has a great deal of
difficulty preparing for a debate or keeping himself under control.
(Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
|