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Seasonally adjusted exports rose by 5.4 percent, the largest
rise since May 2010, data from the Federal Statistics Office
showed on Monday, while imports increased by 3.0 percent.
The data signals that exports, which had been weakening and
losing their traditional role as the main growth driver in
Germany, will contribute to an expected expansion in the third
quarter.
Analysts linked the jump in exports to an improving economy in
China, but they warned that world trade remains weak and risks
are high, especially from a possible "hard" exit by Britain from
the European Union.
"This is a welcome amendment. But world trade remains very weak.
And there are new risks - for instance that of a hard Brexit,"
said Thomas Schilbe of HSBC Trinkaus. "The economy in China has
stabilized. This is good for producers of capital goods."
Weak data in July had raised concerns that the German economy
will slow in the third quarter. But those concerns have largely
quelled by positive figures in recent weeks.
Industrial production rose more than expected in August, posting
its biggest increase since January to rebound from the steepest
fall in 23 months last month.
The government raised its growth forecast for this year to 1.8
percent from 1.7 percent, which would be the strongest expansion
in half a decade.
"The light is green for the German economy to thrust into growth
in the second half of the year," said Thomas Gitzel of VP Bank.
"The overall growth rate in 2016 could come in better than
expected."
A Reuters poll had pointed to exports rising by 2.2 percent and
imports posting a 0.7 percent increase.
The jump in exports widened the seasonally adjusted trade
surplus to 22.2 billion euros ($24.87 billion) from 19.4 billion
euros in July. The August reading was above the Reuters
consensus forecast of 20.0 billion euros.
(Additional reporting by Caroline Copley and Rene Wagner;
Editing by Paul Carrel and Louise Heavens)
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