Oil edges up on record
Indian imports, hopes of output caps
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[October 12, 2016]
By Sabina Zawadzki
LONDON
(Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Wednesday, supported by record Indian
crude imports and talks between OPEC producers and other oil exporters
on curbing output to end a glut in the global market.
Global benchmark oil futures, the Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) contracts, have both risen more than 10 percent since the end of
September on prospects major crude producers would freeze or cut
production to stem an oversupply in the market.
However, doubts remain as to the intentions of major suppliers such as
Saudi Arabia and Iran and the effectiveness of any agreement in reining
in output from record highs.
Brent crude futures <LCOc1> were up 26 cents at $52.67 a barrel by 1115
GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures <CLc1> rose 23 cents to
$51.02 a barrel.
Traders in Asia said oil prices were boosted by record Indian oil
imports, which rose 4.4 percent in September from the previous month to
a record high 4.47 million barrels per day (bpd) and surged 17.7 percent
from a year ago.
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The prospect of countries from the Organisation of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC members such as Russia
coordinating a production curb will support prices above the $50 mark,
market participants have said since an initial agreement was struck at
the end of last month.
Government officials from major oil producers, including Russia, are
meeting in Istanbul this week to try to lay out more details of
production cuts ahead of an official OPEC meeting in November.
Still, analysts cautioned that a deal might fall through especially as
Russia's participation remained uncertain.
"Lots of questions to answer and noises coming from the parties involved
can be contradictory. Volatility is all but guaranteed," analysts at PVM
said in a note.
Much would depend on the timing of any cut, said Alan Gelder, vice
president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie,
which could deter participation.
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![](../images/101216pics/busine43.jpg)
Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub,
appearing to run out of space to contain a historic supply glut that
has hammered prices, in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016.
REUTERS/Nick Oxford
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"Timing is key for Russia to provide non-OPEC support to re-balancing
the oil market, as September was, momentarily, at unprecedented
production levels. The production reference (month) could require
(Russian state oil producer) Rosneft to curb its current drilling
programme, which is contrary to the interests of its private
shareholders," he said.
OPEC's monthly report, which was released on Wednesday, implied the oil
market would see an average surplus of 800,000 bpd next year, up from
760,000 bpd, led primarily by a rise in output from countries outside
the cartel. [OPEC/M]
Oil has rallied more than 13 percent in less than two weeks since OPEC
proposed the first production curbs in eight years. But prices remain at
about half of mid-2014 highs above $100 a barrel as questions remain
over when the market will return to balance.
Goldman Sachs added its doubts on Tuesday, saying in a note that the
planned oil output cut by OPEC and other exporters has become a "greater
possibility". But it warned a production cut probably won't be deep
enough to re-balance markets in 2017, and that oil prices may fall back
into the low $40s per barrel.
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(Additional reporting by Aaron Sheldrick in TOKYO, Henning Gloystein in
SINGAPORE and Rania El Gamal in DUBAI; Editing by Susan Fenton and Susan
Thomas)
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