For U.S. and Obama, Mosul campaign is
calculated risk
Send a link to a friend
[October 18, 2016]
By Warren Strobel, Yara Bayoumy and Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iraq and the United
States have launched a crucial battle to liberate the city of Mosul
without determining how its volatile region will be governed once
Islamic State militants are ejected, U.S. and other officials said.
U.S. officials acknowledge gaps and risks in the plan for Mosul, amid
worries that defeat of Islamic State in its de facto Iraqi capital could
give way to sectarian score-settling and land grabs in the country's
ethnically mixed north.
But they argue that the alternative -- waiting to first sort out Iraq's
fractious sectarian politics -- is unrealistic. With Islamic State
hurting militarily, now is the time to strike, they say.
Plans for administering Mosul itself, and aiding hundreds of thousands
of civilians who could flee the fighting are in place, Western and Iraqi
officials say.
But being left for later, they say, are fundamental issues likely to
determine Iraq's future stability. Among them are bitterly contested
territorial claims in the country's north, including the divided city of
Kirkuk and the disputed borders of the Kurds' autonomous region.
In Mosul, it remains to be seen how power will be shared among the
city's Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and minority Turkmen, Christians, Yazidis and
others.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Oct/18/images/ads/current/culligan_sda_daily_FESTIVALS_2016.png)
"Some of those big-picture governance, territorial issues, are going to
be pushed down the road," a senior State Department official said.
Lukman Faily, Iraq's ambassador to Washington from 2013 until earlier
this year, said that while military planning is advanced, "on the
politics, we still need to get our house in better shape."
The United States has repeatedly found in recent years that the
aftermath of war can prove more troublesome than the fighting itself.
It invaded Iraq in 2003 without a detailed post-war plan and with
insufficient troops, contributing to the chaos that still engulfs the
country more than 13 years later. In Afghanistan, the Taliban are making
gains 15 years after U.S. and allied Afghan forces ousted them from
Kabul.
Iraqi government forces, backed by air and ground support from the
U.S.-led coalition, on Monday launched the initial stages of the
offensive to retake Mosul. The assault has been in preparation since
July.
Fighting is expected to take weeks, if not months, as government forces,
Sunni tribal fighters and Kurdish Peshmerga first encircle the city of
more than 1 million and then attempt to oust between 4,000 and 8,000
Islamic State militants.
"If we try to solve everything before Mosul, Daesh will never get out of
Mosul. And this is really a war of momentum," Brett McGurk, U.S.
President Barack Obama's counter-Islamic State envoy, told reporters
this month. Daesh is a derogatory Arabic term for Islamic State.
At stake for Obama is his hoped-for legacy of seizing back as much
territory as he can from the jihadists before he leaves office in
January. The launch of the Mosul campaign comes three weeks before the
U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8.
"There is a desire to make as much progress against Daesh as possible,"
said a Western diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity.
UNEASE
The decision to back Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's move on
Mosul, which involves a force of more than 30,000 fighters, has support
in key quarters of Obama's administration.
But some U.S. defense and intelligence officials question whether Iraq's
rebuilt army is ready. And they say they worry that the aftermath of a
messy battle could be a political nightmare as Sunnis, Kurds and Shiites
each try to hold parts of the city they have helped liberate.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Oct/18/images/ads/current/napa_bch1-3108.png)
[to top of second column] |
![](../images/101816pics/news_o21.jpg)
A member from western forces stands with his weapon in the east of
Mosul. REUTERS/Azad Lashkari
![](../images/ads/current/richardson_lda_090916.png)
"In some circles around Washington, they want ... things completely in
place before the military campaign starts," said an administration
official, speaking before Abadi's announcement of the start of the
offensive early on Monday.
"Taking Iraqis’ focus away from the military fight to resolve all
the longstanding political fights will only achieve a loss of
momentum against ISIL," the official said, using another acronym for
the group.
Other spoilers are possible, officials acknowledge.
Turkey, which has longstanding cultural and historic ties to Mosul,
says a force it has trained in northern Iraq is now participating in
the fight. Powerful Shi'ite militias also want a role, raising fears
of sectarian clashes in majority Sunni Mosul.
In weeks of intense regional diplomacy, senior U.S. envoys drove
home the message that all forces must be under Abadi's command, the
officials said. Whether the message sticks remains to be seen.
While bigger issues will be left for later, plans have been laid for
governing and stabilizing Mosul in the near-term after the fighting
subsides, the officials said.
The plan calls for the governor of Mosul's Nineveh province, Nawfal
al-Agoub, to be restored and the city divided into sub-districts
with local mayors for each. Agoub will govern along with a senior
representative from Baghdad and from Erbil, capital of Iraq's
autonomous Kurdish region.
Screening procedures for civilians fleeing Mosul have been enhanced,
in an effort to learn from the battle for Fallujah, in Anbar
province. There, Sunni men and boys were held, tortured and in some
cases killed by Shi'ite militia members, who had erected makeshift
checkpoints.
U.S. and Iraqi officials are working to ensure displaced civilians
take safe routes out of the city, and that checkpoints are overseen
by provincial authorities and monitored by international
non-government groups.
They are also hoping that Mosul's populace stay in their homes if
possible, unlike in the cities of Tikrit, Fallujah and Ramadi, which
virtually emptied out as they were being freed from Islamic State's
grip.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Oct/18/images/ads/current/Symphony_lda_091814.png)
The United Nations has said the Mosul battle could leave as many as
1 million people homeless.
"There's a chance, maybe a significant chance, that it's going to be
fewer people than we expect, but of course it would be dangerous to
assume that," the senior State Department official said.
The Western diplomat acknowledged that moving now against Islamic
State's stronghold in Mosul involves a balancing act.
"There’s a certain amount where you can prepare as much as possible,
but once you sort of hit the ground and things actually start
happening, you actually have to be quite flexible and ready," the
diplomat said.
(Additional reporting by John Walcott. Editing by Stuart Grudgings.)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. |