U.S. has few good options for response to
Philippines' Duterte
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[October 21, 2016]
By Yeganeh Torbati and David Brunnstrom
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama
administration has few good options and limited leverage as it struggles
to craft a response to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's
increasingly hostile rhetoric towards the United States and his warm
embrace of China.
For months, Washington has played down Duterte's anti-American insults
and broadsides. But the flamboyant new leader raised the stakes to a new
level on Thursday when he announced his "separation" from long-time ally
the United States and realignment with Beijing and possibly even Moscow,
America's two main strategic rivals.
Duterte's latest outburst, less than three weeks before the U.S.
presidential election, casts further doubt on the seven-decade
U.S.-Philippine alliance and threatens to further undermine President
Barack Obama's faltering "pivot" to Asia as a counterbalance to China's
growing assertiveness.
Potentially at stake is the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement,
reached under Duterte's predecessor, allowing the United States to
rotate ships, aircraft, and personnel through five Philippines bases, an
arrangement seen as crucial to projecting U.S. military power on China's
doorstep.
Mindful of Duterte's volatile nature, the Obama administration has trod
carefully so far, seeking to avoid provoking him even as it chides him
over his deadly war on drugs, U.S. officials say.
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One U.S. official, who did not want to be identified, said there had
been an active internal debate in recent months on how far to go in
criticizing Duterte's government on human rights and that the measured
tone adopted was not as strong as some aides would have liked.
U.S. attempts to raise questions about Duterte's campaign against drugs,
in which more than 3,000 people have been killed since he took office in
June, have drawn angry denunciations by Duterte. He has derided Obama as
a "a son of bitch" and said he should "go to hell."
"It doesn't seem to help to say anything because the minute you say
something, he just lets loose his barrage of obscenities," said Murray
Hiebert, deputy director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies. "I think for the U.S. to just blast
him constantly is probably not very effective."
There is a suspicion in Washington that Duterte could swing back to the
United States - if he decides it suits his interests.
"There is no question that Duterte is...trying to play the well-worn
game of playing us off against the Chinese," another U.S. official said,
on condition of anonymity.
State Department spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that the United
States will seek an explanation from Duterte over his "separation"
announcement, which he made during a visit to China. But he limited
criticism to calling the remarks "baffling" and "inexplicably at odds"
with close ties between Washington and Manila.
CONCERN ABOUT DUTERTE'S UNPREDICTABILITY
U.S. officials are concerned about Duterte's unpredictability, but say
that despite his words the Philippines has not yet canceled military
exercises or formally requested any tangible change in the security
relationship.
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With relations souring further, the senior U.S. diplomat for Asia,
Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, was due to visit Manila
this weekend on what the State Department said was a previously
scheduled trip. He would seek to clarify Duterte's comments, the
State Department said.
If it chose to respond more vigorously to human rights concerns, the
United States could decide to cut military aid to the Philippines,
or make it contingent upon an end to the drug killings or more
careful judicial procedures.
But Philippine officials have suggested their country could live
without the U.S. assistance, and overtures to China and Russia
suggest they might seek assistance elsewhere.
Duterte's trade secretary, Ramon Lopez, said $13.5 billion in deals
would be signed during Duterte's China trip, though it was unclear
how much of that amount was in the form of final deals rather than
preliminary agreements. The White House said current U.S. direct
investment to the Philippines is over $4.7 billion.
Members of the U.S. Congress, including Democratic Senator Patrick
Leahy, a strong voice on foreign policy issues, have indicated they
will consider conditions on U.S. aid to the Philippines if the
killings continue apace.
Washington has provided the Philippines with millions of dollars in
extra military aid in the last two years as part of an effort to
bolster allies to counter China's pursuit of expansive territorial
claims in the South China Sea.
Kurt Campbell, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia
under Obama who may have an administration role should Hillary
Clinton win the U.S. election, has been among those urging a tougher
line on the human rights issue.
"What's happening in the Philippines is starting to raise larger
questions and concern," he said.
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"This idea, that 'No, no, we'll ignore this and maintain quietly our
military and strategic operational activities,' (I) think is going
to be difficult."
(Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick, Arshad Mohammed and David
Brunnstrom, writing by Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom, Editing
by Stuart Grudgings)
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