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In the last week,
there has been little movement. Clinton leads Donald Trump in
most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance
to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win. According to the
project, she has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if
the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would
be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.
Trump came off his best debate performance of the campaign
Wednesday evening but the polling consensus still showed Clinton
winning the third and final face-off on prime-time TV. Trump
disputes those findings.
And some national polls had the race tightening a wee bit this
week though others had Clinton maintaining her solid lead. But
the project illustrates that the broader picture remains bleak
for Trump with 17 days to go until the Nov. 8 election.
Trump did gain ground in South Carolina where his slim lead last
week expanded to seven points, moving it into his column from a
toss-up. Unfortunately for him, he lost ground in Arizona, which
is now too close to call.
Additionally, he is facing a challenge for Utah’s six Electoral
College votes from former CIA operative and Utah native Evan
McMullin. The independent candidate is siphoning votes away from
Trump in a state that is Republican as any in the nation. In
some polls, McMullin is even leading. (The States of the Nation
is not polling on McMullin.)
Utah, like almost all of the states, is a winner-take-all
contest.
Clinton has also maintained a lead in Florida and Pennsylvania,
which have a combined 49 Electoral College votes. Ohio remains
too close to call.
According to the project, lower voter turnout generally benefits
Trump but his best hope for success is if Republican turnout
surges and Democratic turnout is low.
To examine these results and other scenarios, go to the States
of the Nation project http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
.
(Editing by Bernard Orr)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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