Republican hold on U.S. state
legislatures could slip in election
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[October 27, 2016]
By Karen Pierog
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Republican Party's
grip on U.S. state legislatures could loosen in next month's election as
Democrats seek to link Republican candidates to the sinking fortunes of
the party's White House candidate, Donald Trump.
Republicans, who have dominated control of legislatures since the
mid-term election in 2010, currently hold the majority in 67 of the
country's 98 partisan legislative chambers, while Democrats have 31.
Nebraska's single chamber is nonpartisan.
More than 80 percent of the nation's 7,383 state legislative seats are
up for grabs on Nov. 8 and the race between Trump and Democratic
presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is expected to influence races
further down the ballot papers. (See related graphic
http://tmsnrt.rs/2ePmLDI)
The bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)
estimates 18 legislative chambers in 12 states could switch party
control, including in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nevada,
Washington and Wisconsin.
"More than three-fourths of the time the party winning the White House
also makes gains in state legislatures. So the odds are Democrats would
pick up chambers and seats on the whole if (Clinton) wins," said Tim
Storey, a NCSL elections analyst.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Oct/27/images/ads/current/grieme_lda_farm_2015.png)
National opinion polls show Clinton leading Trump with just under two
weeks to go until Election Day.
Democrats are also getting a big boost for down ballot races with
Clinton surrogates such as President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe
Biden, and first lady Michelle Obama on the campaign trail stumping for
party candidates.
Trump, on the other hand, is openly feuding with Republican leaders,
many of whom distanced themselves from the candidate after a 2005 video
surfaced earlier this month in which he is heard bragging about groping
women and making other unwanted sexual advances.
Storey said while Trump has his pockets of popularity, the top
Republican on the party's ticket has become a main line of attack by
Democrats in swing districts.
"Instead of taxes or health care or public safety or education, Trump
has been an issue in many places," he said.
According to Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic
Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), which is working to elect
Democratic state lawmakers, "Trump is quicksand for legislative
Republicans."
But Matt Walter, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee
(RSLC), which hopes to spend $40 million on legislative and other state
races this election cycle, said the Democrats' strategy of using Trump
to campaign against Republicans is not working. He contended his party's
candidates can win even without presidential coattails.
"A good candidate who understands her district, who presents viable
solutions for that district in that state has a better than even odds of
winning in any type of environment," he said.
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![](../images/102716PICS/news_z49.jpg)
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump attends a campaign
event in Washington, DC, U.S., October 26, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo
Allegri
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Oct/27/images/ads/current/mb_heating_quarter_FHI_2016.png)
REPUBLICANS TRY OFFENSE
In addition to defending legislative turf, Republicans are trying to
play offense, targeting 13 chambers in 10 states for seat gains,
including Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Vermont, Colorado and Oregon.
Post said Democratic candidates are offering voters "a crucial
firewall against Republican overreach" in states dominated by
Republicans, like North Carolina, where there has been a backlash
against a law on use of public bathrooms that critics say
discriminates against transgender people.
With all of Minnesota's legislative seats up for election, Democrats
need a net gain of seven seats to take control of the House and turn
the state, which has a Democratic governor, in their favor.
Larry Jacobs, a University of Minnesota political science professor,
said a Democratic sweep could open the way for legislation funding
capital projects and transportation as well as early childhood
education.
In Illinois, Republican Governor Bruce Rauner, his wife and two of
his wealthiest donors have contributed a combined $18 million since
the March primary to House Republican leader Jim Durkin and to a
super-PAC devoted to chipping away at Democrats’ veto-proof
majorities in the state's House and Senate.
Democrats have been in a political stalemate with Rauner for nearly
two years over the budget and other issues.
In West Virginia, historically a Democratic stronghold state,
Republicans took control of the state’s House, Senate, and
governor’s office in 2014 for the first time in 83 years. This
election, Democrats want the Senate back.
Tom Susman, president of TSG Consulting, a Charleston, West
Virginia-based government affairs public relations firm, said the
likely scenario is the Senate remains Republican, with much of the
power ceded to a growing fiscally conservative faction.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2016/Oct/27/images/ads/current/hartsburggrain_daily_sda_021115.png)
"Moderate Republicans are in trouble," said Susman. "We could be
looking at a Kansas-like situation. Then, it would basically be the
Tea Party running the state Senate. No new taxes. All cuts."
(Reporting By Karen Pierog; Additional reporting by Dave McKinney,
Robin Respaut and Hilary Russ; Editing by Daniel Bases and Frances
Kerry)
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