Clinton enjoys solid lead in early
voting:
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[October 31, 2016]
By Maurice Tamman
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With 11 days to go
before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary
Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among
early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the
Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Though data is not available for all early voting states, Clinton enjoys
an edge in swing states such as Ohio and Arizona and in Republican Party
strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.
An estimated 19 million Americans have voted so far in the election,
according to the University of Florida’s United States Election Project,
accounting for as much as 20 percent of the electorate.
Overall, Clinton remained on track to win a majority of votes in the
Electoral College, the Reuters/Ipsos survey showed.
Having so many ballots locked down before the Nov. 8 election is good
news for the Clinton campaign. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of
Investigation announced that it is examining newly discovered emails
belonging to Clinton’s close aide, Huma Abedin. Those emails were found
on a computer belonging to Anthony Weiner, Abedin’s estranged husband,
during an unrelated investigation into illicit messages he is alleged to
have sent to a teenage girl. The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted
before the news emerged Friday afternoon.
It remains unclear whether the FBI inquiry will upset the balance in the
race. The bureau disclosed nothing about the Abedin emails, including
whether any of the messages were sent by or to Clinton. Over the summer,
the FBI said it was closing its investigation into Clinton’s use of a
private email system while secretary of state. Until Friday, her
campaign seemed to have weathered the initial FBI email probe.
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Clinton has held a lead averaging four to seven percentage points in
polls in recent weeks as the Trump campaign wrestled with accusations by
women of groping and other sexual advances. Trump has said none of the
accusations are true. He also struggled in the recent presidential
debates and faced questions about his taxes.
As of Thursday, Clinton’s odds of receiving the 270 Electoral College
votes needed to win the presidency remained at greater than 95 percent,
according to State of the Nation polling results released Saturday. The
project estimated she would win by 320 votes to 218, with 278 votes
solidly for the Democrat.
Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by
President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the
2012 race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken at the time. Obama
won the election by 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
But even before the latest email news, it had been a difficult week for
Clinton. News coverage of Trump’s accusers had diminished, while Clinton
confronted the almost daily release by WikiLeaks of emails purportedly
hacked from her campaign manager’s account. This week’s leaked messages
raised questions about former President Bill Clinton’s finances.
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![](../images/103116pics/news_t38.jpg)
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds an unscheduled
news conference to talk about FBI inquiries into her emails after a
campaign rally in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S. October 28, 2016.
REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
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And her lead in the States of the Nation project fell slightly from
last week. Though the projected Electoral College votes hardly
moved, the number of states solidly for Clinton slid from 25 to 20
this week. Trump didn’t see any additional states tilt solidly to
him, but he did see some gains: The swing states of Pennsylvania,
Colorado, Iowa and Nevada all moved from leaning to Clinton to being
too close to call.
Still, Trump’s path to a victory is narrow, and any realistic chance
rests on his winning Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. As of
Thursday, Ohio remained a toss-up. Florida and North Carolina were
still tilting toward Clinton, according to the States of the Nation
results.
Early voting data for Florida and North Carolina was not yet
available this week. In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits
among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state
is deadlocked between the two candidates.
In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In
the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state
to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call,
according to the project results.
In Georgia, she enjoyed a similar lead among early voters. Overall,
Georgia leans to Trump, but his lead narrowed to five percentage
points this week, down from eights points last week and 13 points a
month ago.
Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a
double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results.
The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people
every week in all 50 states plus Washington D.C. State by state
results are available by visiting
http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
(Editing by James Dalgleish)
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