Speculators raise U.S.
dollar bets this week: CFTC, Reuters data
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[September 10, 2016]
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
(Reuters) - Speculators increased favorable
bets on the U.S. dollar for the first time in six weeks, according to
Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $9.10 billion in the
week ended Sept. 6, from $5.29 billion the previous week, the data
showed, with some investors unwinding extended positions on the
greenback in the run-up to a Federal Reserve policy meeting this month.
Investors had been reducing long dollar positions since the beginning of
August as U.S. data had come out softer than expected. That culminated
in a U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August that was seen as less than
stellar.
But since then, the dollar has regained its footing, supported by a slew
of Fed speakers on Friday and over the past week suggesting a September
rate hike was not exactly off the table despite what many view as a
modest U.S. jobs number.
"The main takeaway from all of these comments is that despite slower job
growth and weaker manufacturing and service sector activity, U.S.
policymakers still believe rates should rise and this consistent message
has not been lost on investors," said Kathy Lien, managing director of
FX Strategy for BK Asset Management in New York.
So far this year, the dollar index <.DXY> has fallen more than 3
percent, down from 2015's gains of more than 9 percent.
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Sterling net short positions, meanwhile, fell for a second straight week
to 89,969, the data showed, after hitting record highs for six straight
weeks. Investors have been net short the pound since November last year.
Sterling will also be a big focus next week with the Bank of England
monetary policy announcement and a host of economic data such as UK
inflation, employment, and retail sales.
Recent UK data has been solid, with manufacturing and service sector
activity accelerating, suggesting that the impact of Britain's exit from
the European Union has been limited so far.
Japanese yen net long contracts, on the other hand, fell to 54,489, the
lowest since mid-August.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is
derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators
in the yen, euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian
dollars.
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$-6.679 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 83,968 91,570
Short 29,479 27,909
Net 54,489 63,661
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$13.028 billion
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Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 97,324 108,261
Short 189,954 190,186
Net -92,630 -81,925
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$7.556 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 38,785 39,648
Short 128,754 132,133
Net -89,969 -92,485
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An employee of a bank counts US dollar notes at a branch in Hanoi,
Vietnam May 16, 2016. REUTERS/Kham
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SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$-0.187 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 22,819 24,557
Short 21,368 16,349
Net 1,451 8,208
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$-1.628 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 44,136 46,808
Short 23,231 24,408
Net 20,905 22,400
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
$-2.994 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 66,211 70,432
Short 27,252 27,866
Net 38,959 42,566
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$1.599 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 16,790 19,848
Short 75,189 53,082
Net -58,399 -33,234
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NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$-0.454 billion
Sept. 6, 2016 Prior week
week
Long 37,243 31,747
Short 31,115 29,854
Net 6,128 1,893
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, editing by G Crosse and Marguerita Choy)
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