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 In the grand scheme, it can seem like a small
issue when compared with Hurricane Harvey -- the deadly natural
disaster that tore through the Gulf Coast of Texas on Friday,
dumping more than 20 inches of rain, according to the National
Weather Service. But Harvey also had at least some impact on the
business, forcing theater closures in South Texas. Still, the
degree to which the storm hurt the bottom line of moviegoing is
up for debate.
Another factor under inspection is Saturday evening's UFC match
which saw Floyd Mayweather beat Conor McGregor with a 10th-round
TKO. The fight was estimated to reap as much as $1 billion in
revenues, and among the biggest pay-per-view draws in history.
Numbers regarding the amount of viewers will be released later
in the week, but some analysts predicted the highly-anticipated
brawl could keep those who would ordinarily see a movie, out of
theaters.
All that said, no amount of outside factors can excuse the
reality that no major releases this weekend managed to connect
with audiences in a significant way. The overall box office this
weekend is not expected to pass $65 million, and the top 12
films will gross less than $50 million. Those figures are the
lowest in more than 15 years.
There have been lulls around this time in recent years. In 2014,
the first weekend in September made $66 million overall. Two
years before that, the Sept. 7-9 frame made $67 million overall
and $51.9 from the top 12. 2008 saw a similar slump in the Sep.
5-7 frame.
But not since late September in 2001 have they dropped quite so
low.* The Sept. 21-23 frame in 2001 earned $59 million overall
and the top 12 made $43.5 million. The year before, Sept. 15-17
fell to $53.7 million for the weekend and $37.9 for the top 12.
Back to the current day, once again, "Hitman's Bodyguard" and
"Annabelle: Creation" will top the charts for Lionsgate and
Warner Bros., respectively. "Bodyguard" is expected to earn
$10.1 million from 3,377 theaters -- combined with last weekend,
its total domestic gross should be $39.6 million. And
"Annabelle" will make $7.4 million from 3,565 locations, raising
its current domestic cume to $77.9 million.
"We expect it to continue to perform well right into September,"
said Lionsgate's distribution president David Spitz.
Otherwise, TWC made two of the weekend's biggest plays with the
animated feature "Leap!" and the expansion of Taylor Sheridan's
"Wind River." The former opened at 2,575 locations in North
America, and is expected to take in $5 million. The film was
acquired for a low cost of $3 million, and under its title in
every market outside of the U.S., "Ballerina," has already
picked up $58.2 million from foreign locations. It's billed as a
musical adventure comedy about an orphan girl who aspires to
become a dancer. The voice cast is led by Elle Fanning, and also
includes Maddie Ziegler, Carly Rae Jepsen, Nat Wolff, Kate
McKinnon, and Mel Brooks. Critics smushed it to 37 percent on
Rotten Tomatoes, but audiences earned the film an A CinemaScore.
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"It's a tough weekend out there in the marketplace when a $5 million
movie is ranked third," remarked Laurent Ouaknine, distribution boss
at TWC. "On our side, we have a film that audiences love," he said,
adding that, while the audience is predominantly young and female,
they're seeing that boys "that are coming with their family like it
too."
"Wind River," meanwhile should make an additional $4.4 million this
weekend from 2,095 locations. The film, now in its fourth week of
release, is intended as the conclusion of a trilogy that includes "Sicario"
and "Hell or High Water." During its first weekend at four theaters,
the thriller scored one of the year's best per-screen averages, but
its mass appeal seems more questionable. "Hell or High Water," which
earned a best picture nomination at the Oscars, also made $4.4
million during its fourth weekend, but from fewer locations (1,303).
"We did decide to go a little bit wider," Ouaknine said. "We saw the
room in the marketplace, and that there was nothing new out there
for the intended audience," he added, touting that TWC is
responsible for two of the top five films in the marketplace.
Also, "Birth of the Dragon" is opening at 1,618 locations to $2.5
million. That's below the $3.25 million goal set by the distributor.
BH Tilt and WWE Studios co-acquired the film after its premiere at
the 2016 Toronto Film Festival. The marketing campaign was
inexpensive and focused on digital promotion, and targeted events.
The movie -- an homage to Bruce Lee's style of martial arts films --
lends its inspiration's name to the main character, played by Philip
Ng. Set in 1960s San Francisco, Lee challenges kung fu master Wong
Jack Man (Xia Yu) to an epic fight.
And Sony's "All Saints," from Affirm Films and Provident Films
should earn $1.55 million from 846 locations. The faith-based film
has a low budget, and is generally embraced by critics (89 percent
on Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences (A- CinemaScore). John Corbett and
Cara Buono lead the cast of the flick, directed by Steve Gomer.
Steve Armour wrote the script, based on a true story, that centers
on a salesman-turned-pastor and a group of refugees from Southeast
Asia.
Despite the recent popular assertion that movie releases are moving
to a year-round schedule with fewer dead zones, August remains a
predictably sleepy month for theaters. Still, years past have
managed bigger successes than we are seeing in 2017. Last year at
this time, for example, Sony's Screen Gems launched "Don't Breathe,"
which grossed $26.4 million in its opening weekend. While a similar
sort of horror hit would be difficult to position between
"Annabelle" and September release "It," there is potential for
movies to perform well at the tail end of summer. That "Wonder
Woman" and "Baby Driver" saw their theater counts upped only adds as
further emphasis that studios see the hole in the schedule -- they
just aren't quite sure how to properly fill it.
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