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"We
do not view the recent U.S. builds as derailing our forecast for
a gradual draw in inventories, with in fact the rest of the
world already showing signs of tightness," analysts at the bank
said in a note dated Feb. 21.
"Given our unchanged 1.5 million barrels per day growth forecast
for 2017, this higher base demand level should fully offset
higher U.S. output."
The Wall Street bank reiterated its forecast for Brent and U.S.
crude prices to rise to $59 and $57.50 per barrel respectively
in the second quarter, before dropping to $57 and $55 for the
rest of 2017.
Oil prices held near multi-week highs on Wednesday, with the
U.S. West Texas Intermediate April crude contract up 18 cents at
$54.51 a barrel at 0228 GMT (5:28 a.m. ET), while Brent crude
was up 24 cents at $56.90.
Surging U.S. output has pushed crude and gasoline inventories to
record highs, keeping a lid on prices after they climbed
following an agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers to cut output by
about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).
"While the production cuts have so far reached a historically
high level of compliance at 90 percent, the rebound in U.S.
drilling activity has exceeded even our above consensus
expectations," Goldman said.
However, the increase in U.S. drilling points to factors
including further improvement in shale productivity and funding
for the industry, rather than expectations of an increase in
prices, the bank said.
(Reporting by Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Joseph
Radford)
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