Business euphoria over
Trump gives way to caution, confusion
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[January 18, 2017]
By Patrick Rucker and Sarah N. Lynch
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Early optimism among business lobbyists and executives that
Donald Trump's election heralded better days has slowly given way to
uncertainty as the president-elect fires off mixed and sometimes
confusing messages on healthcare, taxes and trade.
An initial euphoria in the business world fueled a powerful
post-election stock rally. Some of that has frayed as questions arise
over the nuts and bolts of Trump's campaign promises, although many in
the business community said they remain optimistic.
Doubts deepened over the weekend as Trump declared he would replace
President Barack Obama's signature healthcare plan known as Obamacare
with "insurance for everybody" - a goal far beyond Republican designs -
and criticized a key component of a plan in Congress to overhaul
corporate taxes.
"It is fair to say that since the election, there has been mounting
uncertainty about exactly what the specific policies are likely to be
with regard to tax reform and replacing Obamacare," a financial industry
official said.
Expectations for faster growth, tax reform and a quick repeal of
Obamacare, officially known as the Affordable Care Act, have "given way
to 'We are not really sure what he means by that'," the official said.

A veteran Republican financial lobbyist said she is under constant
pressure from clients to predict what the new administration is
planning, but she has no reliable answers for them.
WRENCH IN OBAMACARE REPEAL
Trump appears to have thrown a wrench into Republican plans to repeal
Obamacare with mixed signals on the details and timing of a replacement
plan.
Congressional Republicans have focused on limiting government
involvement in the healthcare system and eliminating the law's
individual mandate that forces people to have insurance.
But Trump told the Washington Post he was almost done with a plan to
replace Obamacare with "insurance for everybody" while forcing drug
companies to negotiate directly with the government on prices for
Medicare and Medicaid.
Trump's recent attack on the border adjustment tax was another sign of
his unpredictability, the veteran financial lobbyist said.
That measure would tax imports and exempt exports in an effort to
encourage companies to keep jobs and production in the United States.
But in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, Trump called
the proposal "too complicated."
"Anytime I hear border adjustment, I don't love it," Trump told the
Journal. "Because usually it means we're going to get adjusted into a
bad deal. That’s what happens."
Chris Krueger, an analyst at the investment firm Cowen and Co, said
Trump's comments to the newspaper about the border adjustment proposal
were "breathtaking."
"Trump is like a policy bull who seems to bring his own china shop with
him to destroy it with every interview," Krueger wrote in a research
note.

Lobbyists said the Trump transition team's lack of interest in their
input was clear in the last two weeks as it summoned trade groups to
daily "listening sessions" at the American Enterprise Institute think
tank. The agriculture, financial, transportation and tech industries are
among the sectors that got a one-hour session, according to
participants.
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to diplomats and guests at
the Presidential Inaugural Committee (PIC) Chairman's Global Dinner
in Washington, U.S. January 17, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

"GOAT RODEO"
In the sessions, Wall Street lobbyists were encouraged to talk fast: a giant
television screen overhead counted down two minutes of allotted time.
"It
was a goat rodeo. We all got a couple minutes to speak. What can you really say
in that time?" said another financial services lobbyist. "They wanted to check
the box - 'We’re listening to Wall Street'. But who even knows where these
transition people will be in a few days?"
Lobbyists also have been alarmed that the transition team has not included them
in preparations for confirmation hearings for many nominated Cabinet officials,
including potential Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin.
"If you want someone to explain how Elizabeth Warren can hammer you 12 different
ways, ask a lobbyist," said the financial services lobbyist, referring to the
Massachusetts senator who is a frequent critic of Wall Street.
Even
Trump's website sowed confusion about his intentions. A promise to dismantle the
Dodd-Frank regulatory reforms was removed at the end of last year and has not
been replaced. A Trump spokesperson blamed a redesign, but bank lobbyists are
not so sure - other content made it through the redesign.
Some companies have been reassured by Trump’s Cabinet nominees, who are seen as
more predictable and supportive of the business establishment than the impulsive
president-elect.
Senator Jeff Sessions, Trump’s pick for attorney general, has deep differences
on values with the technology sector, but is seen as an important Trump
counterweight because he is a “deliberate decision-maker not prone to big
dramatic mood swings,” a source at one major Silicon Valley firm said.

Many lobbyists and business officials said they remain optimistic and cautioned
against reading too deeply into tweets or comments that Trump makes on policy.
“If
Obama or Bush opined on a policy ... most of Washington assumed that raising
that question was a well-vetted intentional decision to send a signal,” a senior
U.S. Chamber of Commerce official said.
Trump, by contrast, may simply be raising policy issues because he has questions
on them, the chamber official said.
The same financial industry official who acknowledged the uncertain climate also
said he remains optimistic.
"There were a lot of candidates who were interviewed. There were names floated
out there and ... it was kind of a chaotic process," the official said,
referring to the process of picking candidates to fill Cabinet and other
administration positions. “But overall, I think one can make the observation
that in making the final selections, Trump has shown ... a very surprising
even-handedness."
(Additional reporting by Julia Edwards Ainsley and Dustin Volz; Writing by John
Whitesides; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Bill Rigby)
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