Trump's hopes for Syria safe zones may
force decision on Assad
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[January 27, 2017]
By Phil Stewart
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald
Trump's push to create safe zones in Syria could force him to make some
risky decisions about how far to go to protect refugees, including
shooting down Syrian or Russian aircraft or committing thousands of U.S.
troops, experts said.
Trump said on Wednesday he "will absolutely do safe zones in Syria" for
refugees fleeing violence. According to a document seen by Reuters, he
is expected in the coming days to order the Pentagon and the State
Department to draft a plan to create such zones in Syria and nearby
nations.
The document did not spell out what would make a safe zone "safe" and
whether it would protect refugees only from threats on the ground - such
as jihadist fighters - or whether Trump envisions a no-fly zone policed
by America and its allies.
If it is a no-fly zone, without negotiating some agreement with Russia
Trump would have to decide whether to give the U.S. military the
authority to shoot down Syrian or Russian aircraft if they posed a
threat to people in that zone, which his predecessor, former President
Barack Obama, refused to do.
"This essentially boils down to a willingness to go to war to protect
refugees," said Jim Phillips, a Middle East expert at the Heritage
Foundation think-tank in Washington, noting Russia's advanced air
defenses.
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Trump promised during his campaign to target jihadists from Islamic
State, and he has sought to avoid being dragged deeper into Syria's
conflict - raising the question of whether he might be satisfied by
assurances, perhaps from Moscow, that neither Russian nor Syrian jets
would target the zone.
In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Trump did not consult
with Russia and warned that the consequences of such a plan "ought to be
weighed up."
"It is important that this (the plan) does not exacerbate the situation
with refugees," he said.
Phillips and other experts, including former U.S. officials, said many
refugees would not be satisfied by assurances from Moscow, while any
deal with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who also is backed by Iran,
might not go over well with America's Arab allies.
The Pentagon declined comment on Thursday, saying no formal directive to
develop such plans had been handed down yet, and some U.S. military
officials appeared unaware of the document before seeing it described in
the media on Wednesday.
"Our department right now is tasked with one thing in Syria, and that is
to degrade and defeat ISIS," said Captain Jeff Davis, a Pentagon
spokesman.
TENS OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS
Trump's call for a plan for safe zones is part of a larger directive
expected to be signed in coming days that includes a temporary ban on
most refugees to the United States and a suspension of visas for
citizens of Syria and six other Middle Eastern and African countries
deemed to pose a terrorism threat.
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An internally displaced Syrian boy plays with a wheel in Jrzinaz
camp, in the southern part of Idlib, Syria, June 21, 2016.
REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi/File Photo
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During and after the presidential campaign, Trump called for no-fly
zones to harbor Syrian refugees as an alternative to allowing them
into the United States. Trump accused the Obama administration of
failing to screen Syrian immigrants entering the United States to
ensure they had no militant ties.
Any safe zone in Syria guaranteed by the United States would almost
certainly require some degree of U.S. military protection. Securing
the ground alone would require thousands of troops, former U.S.
officials and experts say.
Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies think tank, cautioned that a safe zone inside
Syria could become a diplomatic albatross that would force a Trump
administration to juggle a host of ethnic and political tensions in
Syria indefinitely.
Other experts said jihadists could be attracted to the zone, either
to carry out attacks that would embarrass the United States or to
use the zone as a safe haven where militants could regroup.
Such a zone also would be expensive, given the need to house, feed,
educate and provide medical care to the refugees.
"I think these people really have no idea what it takes to support
25,000 people, which is really a small number, in terms of the
(internally displaced) and refugees" in Syria, Cordesman said.
The draft document gave no details on what would constitute a safe
zone, where one might be set up and who would defend it.
Jordan, Turkey and other neighboring countries already host millions
of Syrian refugees. The Turkish government pressed Obama, without
success, to create a no-fly zone on Syria's border with Turkey but
now is at odds with Washington over its support for Kurdish fighters
in Syria.
(Reporting by Phil Stewart; additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos;
editing by John Walcott and Cynthia Osterman)
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