Back to zero: Companies
use 1970s budget tool to cut costs as they hunt for
growth
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[January 30, 2017]
By Tim McLaughlin
BOSTON
(Reuters) - The number of U.S. companies using a budgeting tool made
famous in the 1970s by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter is surging as
they turn their spending habits upside down to boost profits and to
re-invest in their businesses.
The upswing in zero-based budgeting (ZBB) signals that a broader
cross-section of U.S. companies anticipate turbulence in their revenue
growth. They face more pressure on profits, too, as wages and interest
rates increase, and a stronger dollar makes their products more
expensive overseas.
In consumer staples, where sales growth is often capped in the
low-to-mid single digits, Campbell Soup Co, Kellogg Co, and Oreo cookie
maker Mondelez International Ltd <MDLZ.O> have already rolled out ZBB
programs that promise billions of dollars in savings.
Other industries, including finance, energy and manufacturing, are now
following suit. Use of ZBB in 2017 is expected to increase dramatically
in the United States and around the globe, according to consulting
experts. Bain & Company reported last year in a survey of 406 North
American companies that 38 percent of that group would use ZBB, up from
just 10 percent in 2014.

"ZBB has taken on a life of its own," said Greg Portell, a partner at
consulting firm A.T. Kearney.
A ZBB approach requires corporate managers to justify each line item of
spending in their budgets, or even build their budgets from scratch.
That is a departure from the typical process of using the previous
year's budget as a starting point and adjusting it based on revenue and
inflation projections, for example.
It often cracks down on the size of a company's real estate footprint,
corporate travel, terms of international assignments, redundant
technology and outside consultants. Employees get cut, too.
But there are risks. One is that companies focus too keenly on
restraining spending and not on reinvestment that promotes new products
and revenue growth.
"You continuously have to ask what are strategic costs and how can we
invest behind the things that drive the highest volume," said Jason
Heinrich, a partner in Bain & Company's Chicago office.
FEELING THREATENED
ZBB first gained widespread attention in the late 1970s, when Carter, as
president, said he would apply the budgeting principles to federal
spending. It never fully got off the ground, however, and Ronald Reagan
abandoned it when he became president in 1981.
Its recent resurgence is due in part to Brazilian buyout firm 3G
Capital, which used ZBB when it combined H.J. Heinz with Kraft Foods in
2015.
The combined Kraft Heinz <KHC.O> now has the best profit margins among
its peers with an estimated year-over-year gross margin expansion of 258
basis points, better than twice the average among rivals, according to
Morgan Stanley. Kraft Heinz's stock sports a 2.5-point
price-to-earnings-multiple premium over its peers.
3G's success is one reason the highest adoption rate of ZBB is in the
consumer staples sector, which has banked on cost cutting to offset weak
sales growth. In the current fourth quarter reporting season, the
consumer staples sector is on track to report profit of 6.3 percent off
revenue growth of just 3.2 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

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Kellogg's Corn Flakes cereal is pictured at a Ralphs grocery store
in Pasadena, California August 3, 2015. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni/File
Photo

Contrast that with the consumer discretionary sector where sales are
seen rising 5 percent but profit just 1.1 percent.
Greg Kuczynski, a consumer staples analyst at asset manager Janus
Capital, said ZBB is also being used by some to head off agitation from
activist shareholders or even takeovers, like the Kraft Heinz deal.
“So many of them feel threatened,” he said. “They're desperately
implementing ZBB packages."
Now the approach is spreading to energy, finance, health care and
manufacturing. Cheniere Energy Inc, Huntington Bancshares Inc, Baxter
International Inc and Ford Motor Co <F.N> are some of the latest
devotees.
"If a company uses zero-based budgeting, I have more confidence it can
take out cost faster than peers who do not," said Marc Scott, who helps
run the $1 billion American Century All-Cap Growth Fund.
TOUGHER THAN IT LOOKS
Not everyone is sold on it. It can be an uncomfortable adjustment for
managers and companies have to be careful not to alienate customers and
business partners, according to analysts.
The biggest risk is that companies concentrate only on cutting costs,
and don’t put some of that money back to work behind businesses with the
potential for growth. One unintended consequence is cutting a product's
marketing budget only to see a rival boost spending for their product
and grab market share.
"It's not so simple as some of our other competitors out there make you
believe, which has been roughly translated into, 'Let's cut all the
costs as long as we can get away with it to show you better margins for
a short period of time. But I can't promise you any growth along the
way,'" Unilever Chief Executive Paul Polman told investors in
November.
Even Kraft Heinz has had trouble generating consistent growth. Its
organic net sales, which excludes the impact of currency fluctuations
and other items, declined by 1 percent in the three-month period that
ended Oct 2.

Still, the cost cutting has caught the attention of investors,
particularly when companies scrap product lines that add little value.
American Century's Scott said ZBB was a factor when he evaluated kidney
dialysis provider Baxter International, which has used ZBB principles to
cancel several programs that added little value.
He began building a position in late 2015 when Baxter traded below $35 a
share, according to Thomson Reuters data. The fund now owns about
540,000 shares and the stock trades around $46.
"It was just another feather in their cap," Scott said about Baxter's
use of ZBB. "It's not a huge growth play, but we expect their profit
margins to nearly double in a couple of years."
(Reporting by Tim McLaughlin; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Thomasch)
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