If Baghdadi is dead, next IS leader
likely to be Saddam-era officer
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[June 24, 2017]
By Maher Chmaytelli
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - If Islamic State leader
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is confirmed dead, he is likely to be succeeded by
one of his top two lieutenants, both of whom were Iraqi army officers
under late dictator Saddam Hussein.
Experts on Islamist groups see no clear successor but regard Iyad
al-Obaidi and Ayad al-Jumaili as the leading contenders, though neither
would be likely to assume Baghdadi's title of "caliph", or overall
commander of Muslims.
Russia's defense ministry said last week Baghdadi may have been killed
in an air strike in Syria and Interfax news agency quoted a senior
Russian parliamentarian on Friday as saying the likelihood that he had
been killed was close to 100 percent.
But armed groups fighting in the region and many regional officials are
skeptical about the reports.
"We don't have any concrete evidence on whether or not he's dead
either," U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the international
coalition battling Islamic State, told a Pentagon briefing.
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Obaidi, who is in his 50s, has been serving as war minister. Jumaili, in
his late 40s, is head of the group's Amniya security agency. In April
Iraqi state TV said Jumaili had been killed, but that was not confirmed.
Both joined the Sunni Salafist insurgency in Iraq in 2003, following the
U.S.-led invasion which Saddam and empowered Iraq's Shi'ite majority.
They have been Baghdadi's top aides since air strikes in 2016 killed his
then deputy Abu Ali al-Anbari, his Chechen war minister Abu Omar
al-Shishani and his Syrian chief propagandist, Abu Mohammad al-Adnani.
"Jumaili recognizes Obaidi as his senior but there is no clear successor
and, depending on conditions, it can be either of the two (who succeeds
Baghdadi)," said Hisham al-Hashimi, who advises several Middle East
governments on IS affairs.
Baghdadi awarded himself the title of caliph - the chief Muslim civil
and religious ruler, regarded as the successor of the Prophet Mohammad -
in 2014. Obaidi or Jumaili would be unlikely to become caliph because
they lack religious standing and Islamic State has lost much of its
territory.
NO "LAND TO RULE"
"They don't belong to the Prophet Mohammad's lineage. The group has no
longer 'a land to rule' or 'Ardh al-Tamkeen'. And none is well versed in
Islamic theology," said Fadhel Abu Ragheef, another Iraqi expert on the
extremist group.
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![](../images/062417pics/news_s33.jpg)
A man purported to be the reclusive leader of the militant Islamic
State Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi making what would have been his first
public appearance, at a mosque in the centre of Iraq's second city,
Mosul, according to a video recording posted on the Internet on July
5, 2014, in this still image taken from video. REUTERS/Social Media
Website via Reuters TV/File Photo
![](../images/ads/current/richardson_lda_060817.png)
"A caliph has to have an Ardh al-Tamkeen, which he rules in
accordance with Islamic law. Failing that, the successor will just
be recognized as the emir," said Hashimi.
Emir is Arabic for prince, and is a title that jihadists often use
to describe their leaders.
By contrast, Baghdadi, born as Ibrahim Awad al-Samarrai' in 1971,
comes from a family of preachers and studied Islamic law in Baghdad.
The appointment of the new leader would require the approval of an
eight-member shoura council, an advisory body to the caliph. But its
members would be unlikely to meet for security reasons so would make
their opinion known through couriers.
Six members of the council are Iraqis, one Jordanian and one Saudi,
and all are veterans of the Sunni salafist insurgency.
A ninth member, the group's Bahraini chief cleric, Turki al-Bin’ali,
was killed in an air strike in Syria on May 31.
In Washington, two U.S. intelligence officials said they believed
Islamic State had moved most of its leaders to al-Mayadin in Syria'a
Euphrates Valley, southeast of the group's besieged capital there,
Raqqa.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2017/Jun/24/images/ads/current/Symphony_lda_2017.png)
Among the operations moved to al-Mayadin, about 80 km (50 miles)
west of the Iraqi border, were its online propaganda operation and
its limited command and control of attacks in Europe and elsewhere,
they said.
(Additional reporting by John Walcott in Washington; Editing by
Timothy Heritage and Andrew Roche)
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